There are increasing voices in the market questioning whether Ethereum can hold steady at 3000, but from the actual technical and capital flow perspectives, it’s likely to disappoint those optimistic expectations. It’s not baseless speculation; the data clearly shows the facts.

First, let’s look at the trend structure. A healthy rebound should show higher lows and continuous breakthroughs of previous highs. However, Ethereum’s recent movement exhibits obvious anomalies—after bouncing from 2700 to 3000, it has failed to set new highs, and the lows are gradually declining. What does this indicate? The upward momentum has clearly weakened, and the trend is shifting from a rebound to a downward turn.

Next, consider the capital flow performance. Recently, main funds have been continuously net outflowing from Ethereum. While retail investors are gradually accumulating, this "running while buying" situation is destined to be unsustainable for a major rally. Retail investors’ strength is ultimately limited; when the main funds decide to exit, a decline becomes highly probable.

Technical indicators provide even clearer signals. The RSI has already formed a bearish divergence near 3000, and the MACD below the zero line has failed to generate a valid golden cross—both indicators issuing warnings simultaneously. Such overlapping signals rarely produce false alarms.

Therefore, those still shouting "bull market is starting" or "3000 is just the beginning" should consider their positions. The market doesn’t follow emotions; it responds to capital and structural signals.