On Christmas Day, news about Japan's 122.3 trillion yen budget flooded the headlines, and the朋友圈爆炸——half cheered "Crypto Bull Market is Coming," while the other half hurriedly shouted "Run, it's about to collapse." Anyone who has watched the market for years knows that the best thing to do now is to pause and think, not to be hijacked by these numbers. Frankly, the key words for this wave are "opportunities are in segmentation, risks are in blind following."

Many people have a common misconception: that large-scale fiscal stimulus automatically means a comprehensive crypto rally. That was true during the pandemic in 2020, but the situation has completely changed now. How is Japan spending its 122.3 trillion yen budget? Most of it goes to social security, national defense, and price subsidies, with limited funds actually flowing into financial markets. Plus, Japan's crypto regulations are very strict, and institutional funds need time to come in; the global economy is also in a tightening phase, and monetary policies elsewhere could directly offset Japan's stimulus effects.

So where are the real opportunities? I looked at market trends and identified three areas worth paying attention to:

**Infrastructure Projects** — The Japanese government supports investments in digital infrastructure, and the possibility of blockchain technology gaining official recognition is increasing.

**Cross-Border Payment Applications** — Under the backdrop of the yen's continued depreciation, cross-border transaction demand will rise, and the low cost and fast speed of crypto assets will be very attractive at this stage.

**Regulatory-Compliant Financial Products** — Japan is likely to push for crypto tax reform, and products that meet regulatory standards will become favorites among institutions.

My straightforward judgment: this is a structural market, not a full-blown bull market. Chasing small altcoins randomly? That’s just waiting to be cut. Instead of betting on low probabilities, it’s better to focus on mainstream assets and compliant tracks—that’s the real way to thrive.