As the end of the year approaches, Bitcoin is still fluctuating around $87k, with a tug-of-war pattern. The market is filled with a strange atmosphere—on one hand, almost suffocating panic; on the other, large institutions quietly accumulating positions.

First, let's look at the current market situation. BTC has fallen 30% from its high of $126k this year. Recently, it has been oscillating within the $85k-$90k range, with trading volume clearly shrinking. Liquidity on major exchanges around Christmas is very thin. There are reports that the BTC/USD trading pair on some exchange even briefly crashed to $24k (it recovered instantly, no need to panic). This is a typical sign of insufficient depth.

But here, an interesting contrast appears. Data shows that from mid-November to mid-December, digital asset trusts led by MicroStrategy absorbed a total of 42,000 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 1.09 million. This is one of the largest single-month accumulations in 2025. In other words—while retail investors are cutting losses, smart money is buying up.

Now, let's look at the sentiment. The crypto market's Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 20, indicating extreme fear. Throughout 2025, days of extreme fear exceeded 30%. But historical experience tells us that extreme fear often signals a window for accumulation—because that’s when all irrational panic is released.

On the technical side, BTC tends to spend very little time in the $70k-$80k range (the record is only 28 days), indicating that current support looks weak. In the short term, it may still be necessary to find a solid bottom below $80k, but the $85k-$87k zone remains a strong area. Institutions testing this level repeatedly are still active.

Year-end liquidity diversion is also quite evident. Gold, silver, copper, and other commodities are hitting record highs, drawing some funds away. However, expectations of the Federal Reserve injecting liquidity are also fermenting, which generally benefits risk assets.

Some say 2025 is an "invisible bear market," but from a longer cycle perspective, the halving cycle combined with improved regulatory environment suggests that 2026 could see a period of consolidation followed by a rebound. The thin liquidity at year-end and the pressure from long-term holders essentially form a bottoming process.

Personally, I’ve kept my positions relatively light recently, but around $87k, I added a small long position with a stop-loss at $85k. The initial target is to see if the year-end trend can push toward $92k-$95k. When everyone is in extreme panic, it’s often the time to carefully assess the situation.