Luke Gromen: Why I Sold Most of My Bitcoin by the End of 2025

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Compiled by: Cognitive Alchemy

In mid-to-late November 2025, Luke Gromen, a macro analyst who has long been bullish on Bitcoin and gold, sold most of his Bitcoin positions - not liquidation, but a clear phased reduction, which sparked a lot of discussion in the market.

Yesterday, in his final video for 2025, Luke systematically explained for the first time the thought process behind this decision.

He is not just talking about Bitcoin, but a set of judgments that echo each other: why he is cautious about Bitcoin in the short term, why he is still bullish on precious metals, and how he understands the “multipolar world” that is taking shape.

These views seem to be scattered, but they actually point to the same problem: the macro environment we are familiar with is changing.

In the past 30 years, in the U.S. market, the Treasury market has won, Wall Street has won, and financial asset holders have won; Manufacturing, industrial capacity, and the working class have been squeezed for a long time.

Starting in 2025, as geopolitical competition, supply chain security, and industrial base become hard constraints again, the U.S. government’s policy objective function is being forced to change.

We are leaving a “finance first” world and entering a world of “realpolitik return”.

You can completely disagree with Luke’s judgment on the short-term trend of Bitcoin - this is not a black and white multiple-choice question. But this macro signal deserves to be taken seriously by all long-term investors:

This world is no longer a world of “natural tailwind for financial assets”.

For this reason, it is necessary to remind yourself of an often overlooked fact: long-term investing does not mean that you have to always be on the market at every stage.

Sometimes, the real long term is knowing when to take a step back, reserving judgment, not allowing short-term fluctuations, and forcing yourself to make irreversible choices at the wrong time.

If these discussions can help you look at the market more calmly in the coming period, they have done their job.

The rest, is your own rhythm.

The following content is an original translation of Luke’s own video, I hope it will inspire you.

Original video translation

This is my last public video update in 2025.

To be honest, this year is quite tiring, and sometimes it feels like “getting older according to the age of the dog”. But because of this, I want to make some key judgments clear, rather than leaving more misunderstandings.

One of the most asked questions lately is: Why did you sell most of your Bitcoin in a short period of time?

Let me first make the most important point clear: I did not liquidate Bitcoin. I’m still bullish on it for the long term.

But in the past month or so, I have indeed sold the “big head” of my positions, not because of emotions or prices, but because my judgment of “order” has changed.

1. What I saw right and what I saw wrong before

I have long believed that Bitcoin is the last “liquidity smoke alarm” in the global financial system that is still working. When liquidity starts to tighten, it tends to ring early. This has been repeatedly verified in the past few years.

But I must also admit one thing: my previous judgment of Bitcoin’s role in the “deflationary environment” was wrong.

I originally thought that in deflation, it would be more like a “neutral reserve asset”. But reality tells me: when deflation really comes, Bitcoin will trade more like a high-beta tech stock.

This is not a matter of position, it is a fact.

2. Why does Bitcoin become fragile in deflation?

The reason is actually very simple, but many people are unwilling to look at it from this perspective.

We are now in a highly leveraged global economic system. In such a system, any asset can be understood within the framework of “capital structure”.

When liquidity is abundant and asset prices rise→ the “equity layer” at the bottom of the capital structure rises best

When deflation occurs→ the equity layer is the first and most violent to be hit

In 2008, the equity layer of CDOs and CLOs disappeared in this way.

And now I believe more and more clearly that Bitcoin, in the current system, is precisely the “equity layer”.

This is not to belittle it, but to make a realistic judgment of where it stands.

3. What really changed my judgment was AI and robots

If it was just an ordinary economic downturn, I probably wouldn’t sell.

What really made me re-examine the order was that I saw that AI and robots were creating an “exponential” deflationary force.

This round of deflation has three characteristics:

It comes from technical efficiency, not the demand cycle

It began to have a substantial impact on employment, especially among young people

It spreads very quickly

In this environment, any policy below “nuclear-grade money printing” is actually tightening.

And in the tightening environment, what is the first to be under pressure? Or the equity layer.

This is the core reason why I have become cautious about Bitcoin in the short term and have sold most of my positions.

4. I am not denying Bitcoin, but correcting the “chronological order”

I still believe that deflation will eventually lead to a crisis that will most likely force a truly large-scale monetary response.

But I now think that this step will not come so quickly.

Frankly, I had previously overestimated the speed of policy response. I thought they would have made a move sooner, but they didn’t, and I don’t think they’re going to do it anytime soon.

So for me, it’s a matter of order: before a real policy shift, before a “nuclear-level response” emerges, I prefer to leave the most vulnerable layer of the capital structure and come back after prices reflect reality more fully.

Maybe I’ll be wrong. Maybe I’m “too good at math”. But this is my most honest judgment at the moment.

5. Then why do I prefer to hold silver?

Silver is not an emotional judgment, but a structural judgment.

What I see is that industrial demand continues to rise, and the supply side has almost no ability to expand rapidly, and even if prices rise, it is difficult to quickly form an effective supply response.

Unless we destroy demand with a deep recession. But if that happens, the world will return to the path of “crisis-printing money” faster.

From this point of view, the logic of silver is more direct and simple.

6. Behind this, there is actually a bigger structural change

I want to make it clear this time that it’s not just Bitcoin or silver.

What I really want to say is that we are leaving a “finance-first” world and entering a world of “realpolitik return”.

In the past 30 years, the Treasury market has won, Wall Street has won, and financial asset holders have won; Manufacturing, industrial capacity, and the working class have been squeezed for a long time.

Now, as national competition, supply chain security, and industrial base become hard constraints again, the objective function of policy is being forced to change.

This does not mean a good, low-interest rate, weak dollar utopia. It is more likely to be a: a world more unstable, more frictional, less “elegant” but also more real.

End: All I can do is make what I see clear

I know these judgments are not pleasing. Especially when emotions are still highly optimistic.

But I always think that it is more important to explain the logic clearly than to make people feel comfortable.

I still respect the long-term significance of Bitcoin and am still preparing for that “real turning point”.

Only now, I choose to stand aside and see clearly where this round of deflation is really going.

That’s the most honest explanation I can give at the end of 2025.