Precious metals have recently experienced a fierce rally, and various interpretations are emerging. Many people cite a seemingly logical argument: this wave of market movement is a replay of the "safe-haven surge" during the internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008. At first glance, it does sound plausible, but if you extend the timeline of the K-line chart and verify with real gold and silver data, this explanation quickly falls apart.

**History Speaks: When a Crisis Arrives, Gold and Silver Do Not Necessarily Surge**

Let's review the records. Two facts will completely overturn your perception.

From 2000 to 2002, the internet bubble burst coincided with 9·11 in 2001—a black swan event capable of changing global geopolitics. Logically, safe-haven sentiment should have exploded, but look at the market? Gold and silver movements were quite ordinary, with no major ups and downs. A single crisis event alone cannot drive precious metal prices.

Even more painfully, in 2008, during the worst of the financial crisis, gold and silver did not rise; instead, they fell along with the market. Why is that? Under extreme panic, liquidity dried up, deflationary pressures dominated, and all assets were sold off to raise cash. In this kind of brutal market environment, no one paid attention to whether precious metals were "safe-haven assets."

**What Does a True Bull Market Look Like? The Answer Comes from 2010-2011**

The last super bull market for gold and silver in history peaked in 2011. But what triggered this rally was not the moment the crisis broke out, but a confluence of macro factors:

The European debt crisis truly fermented in 2010, which was the real ignition point for safe-haven sentiment. Meanwhile, in 2009, the Federal Reserve began the zero-interest-rate policy and launched the first round of large-scale quantitative easing—actual interest rates plummeted, and the dollar's credit was re-evaluated. On the trading front, the silver market also experienced short squeeze dynamics. Under multiple resonances, gold and silver finally peaked in 2011.

**Telling a Story Requires Telling the Truth**

Grand narratives cannot rely solely on "sounds plausible" logic for self-justification; they must be supported by real data. History textbooks clearly state: the surge in precious metals often does not occur during the crisis itself, but after crisis response policies (such as massive liquidity injections) take effect, during the phases of inflation expectations and credit revaluation. Understanding this time lag is key to avoiding detours.