2025-12-27 15:21:14

The countdown to Bitcoin halving is getting closer, and the market is everywhere touting the idea that "halving must lead to a bull market." But if you look deeper, you'll see that this time really is different—three unprecedented forces have completely rewritten Bitcoin's supply and demand logic.

**First Change: The Black Hole Effect of Institutional Cold Wallets**

In the past, miners had to sell the coins they mined to cover operational costs, creating a persistent selling pressure. But now, that's different. After massive inflows from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, they lock the purchased Bitcoin directly into cold wallets, sometimes forever. This is equivalent to permanently freezing a portion of the circulating supply, making the tradable market smaller and smaller.

**Second Change: Miners' Survival Anxiety**

Halving means the block reward is cut in half directly. Older mining machines like the S19, which have been running for years, could become unprofitable overnight—necessitating shutdowns. The entire network's hash rate will undergo a major reshuffle, with only the newest, most energy-efficient miners surviving. During this process, some miners forced out will sell off equipment and assets, leading to short-term selling pressure that looks ugly. The question is, can the market absorb this selling pressure?

**Third Change: Ecosystem Bloodsucking**

The key change happens here—funds are no longer just hoarding Bitcoin. Instead, they are pouring into derivative plays within the Bitcoin ecosystem: STX, Runes, various Layer2 tokens. Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a "base asset," while real profits and wealth effects are playing out in its ecosystem derivatives.

These three forces appearing simultaneously have completely changed the logic of past halvings. Will this round see Bitcoin soaring past all-time highs, or fall into a long period of boring sideways movement? Or even decline gradually? What’s your view?

BTC0,38%

STX2,95%

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retroactive_airdrop

· 2h ago

Institutions pouring money into cold wallets is really ruthless, essentially doing a disguised form of liquidity shorting. --- How much selling pressure can be caused by the wave of miners forced to shut down? It really depends on the difficulty adjustment speed. --- The judgment that ecosystem vampirism is very accurate; it's becoming increasingly obvious that BTC is turning into a base asset. --- Everyone who says halving must lead to a bull market should read this article; the logic has completely reversed. --- Sideways trading? Gradual decline? It feels like this might be more likely this year. --- Fidelity and BlackRock's move to directly freeze the circulating supply; no wonder the market reaction has become dull. --- Funds are flowing entirely into Runes and STX; the era of BTC becoming a "tool coin" has truly arrived. --- The big reshuffle of mining machines and the selling pressure—whether the market can absorb it is the key. --- The black hole effect of cold wallets sounds like a disguised way to create scarcity—brilliant.

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AllTalkLongTrader

· 12h ago

Institutional lock-up is indeed fierce, but I still think the selling pressure from miners selling everything they have is the real bomb. Enough said, I’ve fully stocked STX. BlackRock is accumulating coins, I’m accumulating ecosystems, this logic makes sense. Halving must lead to a bull market? Ha, who still believes that now? Cold wallets are a double-edged sword, the truly movable chips are getting fewer and fewer, what does that mean? Sideways trading? I bet it will plummet and then rebound. If you don’t believe me, block me. This layer two bloodsucking move has directly turned Bitcoin into a side dish, quite interesting. Old miners exiting means it’s time to buy the dip. Isn’t that like giving away money? Runes is really about to take off this round; those stacking coins are all fools. After the big reshuffle of hash power, the real market begins.

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JustHereForAirdrops

· 12h ago

Institutional cold wallets are locked, and miners are about to dump... What are we playing with this halving? It doesn't seem that simple. Funds have all moved into the ecosystem, and BTC has become the base asset? Should I bet on the main coin or go all in on Rune? Wait, this logic is reversed... Shouldn't a decrease in circulating supply push prices higher? Why is there still a possibility of a decline? The S19 shutdown wave is coming, and miners really have to sell everything. Who will take over the market this time? The ecosystem siphoning has some interesting points. It feels like the main coin can't rise, but the ecosystem tokens are taking off. Can halving still lead to boring sideways trading? This start doesn't seem quite right, brother. Is Rune's popularity really high enough to divert funds from BTC? Or are both of them rising together? Are miners really that miserable? It can't be that they all dump their holdings, right? BlackRock's funds are locked and permanently frozen. Maybe that's not entirely a bad thing? This halving is definitely different, but I still find it hard to believe in a sustained decline.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 12h ago

The black hole effect metaphor is brilliant; the Beholders are slowly suffocating liquidity. The selling pressure from miners selling everything they have is indeed terrifying upon closer inspection, and the halving came too quickly. However, to be honest, I am more optimistic about the ecological vampirism; there are already voices on the Rune side. Will it hit a new all-time high or just consolidate? I bet on consolidation; institutions aren't in such a rush. It feels like this halving logic has truly reversed, no longer rising in a straight line like before. STX is already prepared, just waiting for the moment when the ecosystem explodes.

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SerRugResistant

· 13h ago

Institutional cold wallets, to put it simply, mean the coins disappear from the market. Does it actually benefit the market? But this round, miners really have to endure the pressure, a short-term crash is inevitable... Ecological vampirism is the real dead end. Funds are all flowing into derivatives. During the BRC20 craze, there was at least some heat; now, it's just diverting. Watching BRC really feels a bit painful. As for the halving, the more I look at it, the more I feel this cycle is different. Reaching new all-time highs seems difficult... Let's wait and see.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 13h ago

Hmm... That’s an interesting point, but I think the institution’s move to lock up cold wallets this time is actually a positive? Less selling pressure means less downward pressure. The real issue might be the miners’ dumping. Actually, I’m more concerned about the ecosystem. Can STX and Runes really sustain the hype around the mainnet this time? It feels like most of the current activity is just hype and speculation. The halving itself hasn’t changed; what’s different are the participants and the gameplay. This actually tests the market’s maturity more. Bro, do you really think miners will shut down en masse? With such low profitability for S19, they should have been phased out long ago. What I’m a bit worried about is that if the black hole effect is really that strong, and circulating supply keeps shrinking, could it actually be broken through? The logic is a bit convoluted.

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