Every fluctuation on the chart tests traders' psychological defenses. The tug-of-war around $3000 is more complex than anyone imagined.

As a participant who has been immersed in this market for years, I have seen many critical moments. But Ethereum's repeated probing near $3000 is truly a classic case worth recording. In recent days, ETH has repeatedly approached this level but has been pushed back each time, and the patience of both bulls and bears is gradually being exhausted.

The moment I open the candlestick chart, I see the Bollinger Bands' width has compressed to about $30 — a sign of extreme calm. Such a highly compressed volatility state usually doesn't last long. In the next 24-48 hours, the market is likely to make a choice. Will it prepare for a dip, or will there be a new downward adjustment? Today, I want to discuss my observations from a practical perspective.

**The market is telling a story through price**

On-chain data reveals some interesting details. Whales have bought over 280,000 ETH in the past five days, amounting to nearly $1 billion. What does this unusual behavior indicate? Smart money is quietly building positions during the market's hesitation window.

There's another detail worth noting — every time the price dips to $2900, buy orders exceeding $150 million pile up on the order book. This is a defensive line, but it’s not something retail investors can set up on their own. This is a fingerprint of institutional players.