Have you heard this saying? "Bitcoin's four-year cycle, halving leads to a surge." Every time before and after a halving, the market is flooded with this kind of rhetoric. As a market observer who has experienced multiple cycles, I have to be honest: the cyclical pattern of Bitcoin does indeed exist, but its "magic" is gradually fading.

You might still be waiting for the next big rally after the halving, but here comes a warning—don't be hostage to historical experience and collective sentiment. The underlying logic of Bitcoin's cycle has quietly changed, and those still using old methods are likely to suffer losses. Today, let's have a good discussion about what exactly has changed in this cycle's spell, what hasn't, and these are practical insights that can help you avoid pitfalls.

My view is this: Bitcoin's "halving cycle" still exists, but its influence is waning. Future cycles will lengthen, and volatility will become more subdued. Why? In earlier years, the market was small, mostly driven by speculators. When the halving occurred and supply sharply decreased, it immediately triggered a rally; now it's different. The market has expanded, institutional funds have gained more influence, and the impact of the halving event on the market is naturally less direct.

So what is the "essence" of Bitcoin's cycle? Many people only memorize the phrase "a four-year cycle," but they don't really understand the logic behind it. The core mechanism boils down to two words: supply and demand. Bitcoin's block rewards are halved every four years, which means the rate of new supply is cut in half. At the same time, as awareness increases, demand for Bitcoin continues to grow. Tightening supply and increasing demand—this should theoretically push prices higher. But now the market is more complex, and relying solely on this logic is no longer enough.