#比特币与黄金战争 Is zero-sum or win-win? The future of Bitcoin and gold is more than one way

Recently, many people have been asking: will Bitcoin replace gold, or will gold crush Bitcoin? Actually, this question is asked the wrong way.

If we look at it from a different perspective, this "war" may not be a life-and-death struggle, but rather two or even multiple parallel evolutionary paths happening simultaneously. Each path has its own logic, and the probabilities vary.

**First possibility: Division of roles between two worlds (40% probability)**

Imagine a scenario: gold returns to its essence, becoming a strategic reserve for nations and large institutions, like installing a physical-level "safe" for the global economy. Meanwhile, $BTC is entirely different; it is a financial self-rescue tool for individuals and fringe economies, a channel toward digital sovereignty.

They are not competitors but divisions of labor. Gold safeguards the stability of the physical world, while Bitcoin protects the freedom of digital territories. They each serve their roles on the balance sheet—like the army and navy—both important and useful.

In this case, their price fluctuations might be loosely correlated. Gold surges due to geopolitical conflicts and rising inflation expectations; Bitcoin rises because of increased capital controls or financial repression. Interestingly, during certain crises, both may rise simultaneously—each responding to its own "apocalyptic scenario."

**Second possibility: Bitcoin's rebirth (30% probability)**

This scenario relies on strict assumptions: global digitalization is truly irreversible; post-00s and post-10s generations have grown up entirely in native digital assets, and no longer need the old gold system. At the same time, Bitcoin must solve its existing issues—transaction speed, energy consumption, user experience.

Once these conditions are met, Bitcoin will no longer be labeled as "digital gold," but will become a genuine monetary network. By then, where will gold stand? At most, it will be relegated to high-end jewelry and extreme backup plans, with its financial attributes significantly diminished. But don’t expect gold to go to zero—after all, it still has physical backing.

**Third possibility: Gold's counterattack (20% probability)**

Conversely, if a global energy crisis worsens, geopolitical conflicts intensify, and humanity begins to crave tangible assets again. Plus, if Bitcoin encounters a technological black swan—catastrophic vulnerabilities, global regulatory clampdowns, or threats from quantum computing—the narrative of "digital currency saving the world" collapses.

In this scenario, Bitcoin becomes a legend—its technological ideas absorbed by later generations, but its store of value dream shattered. Gold reclaims its dominant position.

**Fourth possibility: The dark horse of a third party (10% probability)**

The most interesting is that none of the above three paths account for, and a new player emerges.

For example, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—backed by national credit, offering digital payment convenience, but with zero resistance to censorship. Or some new type of algorithmic stablecoin, backed by physical assets like gold or energy, trying to combine the advantages of both worlds. Even more radical ideas include value carriers built on personal data sovereignty, carbon credits, or computing resources—completely new dimensions.

If these new innovations truly appear, the battle between gold and Bitcoin will resemble the old era of horse-drawn carriages versus early automobiles—ultimately, the real winner will be the later aircraft.

**Final observation**

Rather than entangling over who wins or loses, it’s better to accept that this market is large enough to accommodate different beliefs and needs. Some seek the certainty of gold, others value the freedom of Bitcoin, and some are waiting for the next possibility. Behind each choice is a bet on the future—and the future is never limited to just one path.