Recently, I’ve been discussing the same topic with several friends in the investment circle—the impact of subsidy policy changes on the market. I’ve also organized some of my observations to share with everyone.

**When will the subsidy rollback be most intense?**

Honestly, the first quarter of next year will be a real test. This year’s subsidy policies provided strong support for the low- and mid-end price segments, which directly depleted some purchasing power. Next year, that purchasing power will be gone, and market pressure can be imagined. The reaction in the secondary market has already been quite obvious; stock prices across the entire automotive sector have adjusted sufficiently, and everyone is now observing. After talking with a few researchers, honestly, they aren’t that optimistic, but within this pessimistic outlook, there might be opportunities. The key is to keep tracking policy trends and sales data.

**Will subsidies really disappear next year?**

They won’t disappear outright. The support framework for ultra-long-term government bonds is still in place, and subsidies won’t fall off a cliff suddenly. But I think the focus will definitely shift. This is easy to understand—now that the penetration rate in the whole vehicle market has exceeded 50%, it’s less necessary to stimulate sales solely through subsidies. Future subsidies are more likely to focus on product quality, technological innovation, and brand building, rather than simply prioritizing volume.

**Where will the market go?**

This is a complex question. On one hand, the market indeed faces slowing growth pressure; on the other hand, the competitive landscape of the entire industry is evolving rapidly, and product iteration speeds are increasing. For investors, this period requires more refined judgment—identifying which companies can maintain competitiveness despite subsidy reductions, and which are still relying on subsidies to survive.

I believe the real investment opportunity isn’t in the pessimism itself, but in how to find certainty amid change. Although the changes in subsidy policies seem to bring pressure, for companies with genuine product strength and brand influence, it might actually be an opportunity—policies no longer distribute subsidies equally, and the market will more truly reflect the value of products.

So whether the vehicle sector will improve by 2026 still depends on how industry participants respond. Short-term pressure is foreseeable, but the long-term logic requires ongoing observation.