Recently, looking back at this market cycle, I found an interesting phenomenon.

On the US stock side, two of the three major indices have hit new highs, with the Nasdaq still on the way. Conversely, in the crypto world, the leading coins are collectively moving on a path of new lows.

This scene feels familiar—last year, Bitcoin's market was playing out the same way, with continuous new highs while other coins kept hitting bottom. Many people, seeing this situation, instinctively think, "Is the altcoin rebound coming?"

But last year's lesson was not light.

Back then, Bitcoin kept rising while altcoins kept falling. When Bitcoin finally stopped climbing and experienced a slight correction, altcoins immediately plunged. Why? Because all the buying was concentrated on Bitcoin, and other coins relied on sentiment to support them, with very few real buy-in from actual funds. Now, if the US stock market really starts to decline, the pressure on top-tier coins will only become heavier. Bitcoin might even be dragged down, and the resilience of other coins will look even worse.

How does this structure form? Several factors are at play.

First is the tilt in capital allocation. Institutional funds are still rotating within core US stock assets, while crypto funds have shifted into the defense positions of a few top coins, continuously draining the altcoin market. Second is the completely different liquidity environment. Even in a high-interest environment, US stocks can find structural support points, whereas crypto liquidity heavily depends on risk appetite changes. Once external markets turn conservative, top-tier coins will face immediate pressure, leaving smaller coins with even less room to maneuver. Plus, there's a mismatch in sentiment—many people see new highs in indices and naturally assume the same will happen in crypto. In reality, the fund structures on both sides are vastly different, driven by different logic, and their rhythms often lag several beats.

Is there a way to predict this in advance?

Honestly, aiming to precisely catch the top and bottom is self-deception. But we can pay more attention to the structure and signals. Observe the details of Bitcoin's price movements, changes in capital flow, and the relative performance of mainstream coins versus others—these can provide some clues. Instead of guessing when altcoins will turn around, it's better to first clarify the current capital logic and where the risks lie.