Recently, there has been a lot of discussion suggesting that this year's trend will repeat the patterns of 2018 and 2022—bottoming out around Q4, then reaching new highs next year. But upon closer reflection, this logic may not hold up.

Indeed, in previous clear bear markets, there was a common background: 2018 was characterized by an aggressive Fed rate hike cycle, and 2022 was even more so, compounded by geopolitical risks like the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The market faced both monetary tightening and black swan events, making the bottom deep under double pressure.

But is the current environment really the same? The macro backdrop for next year and now has already changed significantly. The Fed's policy stance has shifted, and the rate hike cycle has long ended. This means the nature of liquidity pressure is different, and the market's pain points are also different.

Honestly, many people keep saying "this time is different," but ultimately, they can't escape the cycle of history. However, this doesn't mean history will necessarily repeat itself. The key is to look at the driving forces—2018 and 2022 were passive, forced downturns, whereas the current variables are more complex: policy factors, liquidity conditions, and even global economic expectations, which are not the same as those two times.

So rather than confidently believing that Q4 will be the bottom and that there will be new highs next year, it's better to observe the actual changes in policy rhythm and capital flows. History is informative but not an iron law.