Market Signals Point to Strong Odds of September Rate Cut, CME Data Shows 87.4% Likelihood

FUD_Vaccinated · 2025-12-26T21:58:20+00:00

CME's Federal Reserve Watch shows an 87.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the next Fed meeting, highlighting market expectations for a shift from restrictive monetary policy. This anticipated decision is crucial for traders and investors.

FUD_Vaccinated

2025-12-26 21:58:20

Abstract generation in progress

The latest reading from CME’s Federal Reserve Watch indicates a significant probability shift toward monetary easing. According to tracking data published on August 6, markets are pricing in an 87.4% odds of a 25 basis point reduction when the Fed convenes next month, with only a 12.6% chance of rates remaining at current levels.

This strong lean toward a quarter-point cut underscores growing market expectations that the central bank is ready to pivot from its restrictive stance. The basis point metric represents a quarter percentage point—a standard measure of rate adjustments—making this one of the most anticipated decisions on the economic calendar for traders and investors monitoring Fed policy shifts.

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