When will the next Bitcoin boom occur: Growth cycles and main catalysts

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has demonstrated a clear pattern of growth and decline waves since its launch in 2009. Currently, BTC is trading at $87.78K, but the asset’s history shows that the question “when will the next surge happen” remains relevant for millions of investors. Understanding the mechanisms of bullish cryptocurrency markets helps participants prepare for upcoming opportunities and manage risks in this highly volatile asset.

How Bitcoin Cycles Work: From 2013 to Today

Analyzing BTC’s history reveals that each significant price jump was driven by a specific set of factors. The first major price surge occurred in 2013, when Bitcoin rose from $145 in May to $1,200 in December — a 730% increase. This rally attracted widespread attention and demonstrated the potential of digital assets as a store of value.

Four years later, in 2017, there was an even more impressive growth. Starting at $1,000 in January, BTC reached nearly $20,000 by December — a 1,900% increase. This period was marked by a boom in initial coin offerings (ICOs) and a sharp increase in retail investor interest. However, the following year, (2018), brought a correction of over 80%.

The 2020-2021 period was characterized by a massive influx of institutional capital. Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla allocated part of their assets to Bitcoin, pushing the price from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021 (growth of 700%). During this time, BTC was positioned as “digital gold” and a hedge against inflation.

Main Growth Mechanism: Supply Reduction via Halving

A key factor driving Bitcoin cycles is the halving event, occurring approximately every four years. Halving reduces the block reward by half, decreasing the issuance of new BTC and creating scarcity.

After the 2012 halving, the price increased by 5,200%. The 2016 halving led to a 315% rise, and the 2020 event caused a 230% increase. This pattern suggests that the upcoming halving in 2028 could serve as a catalyst for a new wave of growth.

Historically, maximum prices have been reached 12-18 months after halving, when the market overestimates the impact of reduced issuance.

2024: Institutionalization and a New ATH

The current growth cycle began with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA in January 2024. This SEC decision opened access to digital assets through traditional financial products, attracting large capital flows.

As of the latest data, the total inflow into spot ETFs has exceeded $28 billion, surpassing the volume of gold funds on global markets. BlackRock, through its IBIT ETF, is accumulating over 467,000 BTC.

In April 2024, the fourth halving took place, further boosting bullish sentiment. The price soared above $93,000, setting a new all-time high. However, the current correction to $87.78K reminds us that even in a steady uptrend, pullbacks are possible.

Notably, the all-time high reached $126.08K, indicating even greater growth potential if a bull market resumes.

Indicators of an Upcoming Bullish Cycle

To identify the start of a new growth wave, monitor several key signals:

Technical Indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70 indicates strong buying momentum
• Price crossing above 50- and 200-day moving averages signals trend reversal
• Trading volumes — increasing volumes during an uptrend confirm strength

On-Chain Data:

• Address and wallet activity: rising active addresses precede price increases
• Influx of stablecoins onto exchanges indicates preparation for buying
• Decreasing BTC reserves on trading platforms suggest accumulation by investors

Macro and Regulatory Factors:

• Central bank interest rate decisions
• Inflation trends
• Changes in tax and regulatory environment
• Elections and political shifts

Predictions for the Next Cycle: What Could Be a Catalyst

Several factors may determine the intensity of Bitcoin’s next surge:

Government Recognition as a Strategic Asset

In the USA, the Bitcoin Act of 2024 has been proposed, proposing that the government purchase up to 1 million BTC over five years. Adoption of such legislation could reclassify Bitcoin in investors’ eyes and require large-scale acquisitions. Countries like Bhutan have already accumulated over 13,000 BTC through their investment funds, positioning cryptocurrency as part of national wealth.

Expansion of Products for Institutional Investors

The emergence of Bitcoin futures (approved in late 2020) and spot ETFs (January 2024) removes barriers for large capital. More regulated products, including Bitcoin bonds and structured investments, are expected to launch.

Network Technological Upgrades

The potential revival of the OP_CAT opcode could revolutionize Bitcoin’s functionality. This would enable DeFi applications on the Bitcoin network and process thousands of transactions per second via Layer-2 solutions, positioning BTC as a competitor to Ethereum in decentralized finance.

Current Market Status and Short-Term Outlook

As of (data from December 26), the main metrics are as follows:

• Current Price: $87.78K (down 11.62% year-to-date)
• 24-hour Range: $86.89K - $89.57K
• All-Time High: $126.08K
• Market Cap: $1.75 trillion
• 24-hour Trading Volume: $916.37M
• Active Addresses: 55,106,626

This level of correction from the all-time high indicates consolidation and the potential formation of a base for a new wave. The increase in active addresses (more than 55 million) suggests growing interest in the asset.

Three-Stage Preparation System for the Next Growth Cycle

Stage 1: Education and Historical Analysis

It is critically important to understand past cycle patterns. Each rally had its driving forces: in 2013, it was financial instability and the Cyprus crisis; in 2017, the ICO boom and media attention; in 2020-2021, large-scale government stimulus and institutional recognition.

Stage 2: Strategic Positioning

Use regulated platforms like Gate.io with reliable security protocols. Two-factor authentication and cold storage for long-term holdings are essential measures.

Stage 3: Active Monitoring of Signals

Track technical indicators, on-chain data, and macroeconomic news to respond promptly to trend changes. Practice safe trading with stop-loss orders and avoid emotional decisions — critical skills in a volatile environment.

Risks and Challenges of the Next Cycle

Despite growth potential, investors should consider significant risks:

• Macroeconomic Shocks: Central bank rate hikes or economic downturns may divert capital to more conservative assets
• Regulatory Pressure: New restrictions, especially on mining and trading, could limit liquidity
• Altcoin Competition: Emerging tokens with enhanced functionality may divert capital flows
• Sustainability Issues: Environmental concerns related to energy consumption could deter ESG-focused investors
• Speculative Bubbles: Leverage and FOMO may lead to rapid corrections

Summary: Navigating the Next Bitcoin Cycle

History shows that Bitcoin is a cyclical asset, with periods of rapid growth followed by corrections. The next rally is most likely to be triggered by:

1. The upcoming halving in 2028
2. Possible recognition of BTC as a national reserve asset
3. Introduction of new regulated financial instruments
4. Technological upgrades expanding functionality
5. Continued macroeconomic instability

The current correction from $126K to $87.78K can be seen as an opportunity to accumulate before the next surge. However, investors should approach responsibly: develop a clear strategy, diversify their portfolio, use risk management tools, and stay informed about market developments.

For long-term investors, Bitcoin remains an asset with transformative potential in the evolving digital financial ecosystem. The key to success is not to guess the exact rebound point but to be well-prepared and informed when it occurs.