#数字资产市场动态 GUA Short Opportunity Summary

【Trading Strategy】
Sell on weakness | Leverage 3-5x (to prevent liquidation during sharp drops)

Entry Range: $0.1155-$0.1170 (wait for a rebound to reach this level, don’t chase the bottom)
First Take Profit: $0.1090
Second Take Profit: $0.1070
Stop Loss: $0.1200 (if it breaks the recent high, exit quickly)

【Three Confirmation Levels for Entry (all are essential)】

Level 1: Weak rebound signals. Price rebounds to around $0.116, but the 1-hour RSI hasn’t broken above 60, and the 4-hour RSI remains below 45 — indicating limited buying strength.

Level 2: Momentum clearly wanes. The 1-hour MACD histogram shrinks from +0.00007 to negative or the price directly breaks below the 1-hour EMA12 at $0.1159 — either sign is a sell signal.

Level 3: Accelerated capitulation. Open interest on the 4-hour chart drops further from -7.7% to below -10%, or trading volume shrinks below $10M — indicating bulls are rapidly abandoning their positions.

Only when all three conditions are met should you open a short position in the $0.1155-$0.1170 rebound zone. Avoid chasing shorts at current prices.

【Why bearish now?】

Fundamentals are straightforward: GUA is currently at $0.1174, with a market cap around $117M. Most critically, open interest has decreased by 7.7% in the past 24 hours — bulls are fleeing quickly.

Funding rate is +0.006% (typical for major exchanges), meaning longs pay shorts. The overall market structure is leaning bearish.

The most telling data is liquidation distribution: in the past 24 hours, 92% of liquidations involved long positions being wiped out, only 8% shorts — indicating persistent long liquidation, a clear bearish signal.

【Technical Analysis】

Multiple timeframes show weakness. The 1-hour RSI is at 53.1, neutral but leaning weak; the 4-hour RSI has dropped to 38.4, showing clear fatigue. The ADX on the 4-hour is 55.3, indicating a strong downtrend.

Price is currently at $0.1174, holding above the 1-hour EMA12/26 (~$0.1159), which looks decent, but it’s well below the 4-hour EMA12 ($0.1176) and EMA26 ($0.1255), indicating a long-term downtrend within a channel. The lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour is at $0.1015; the price is oversold but shows no signs of rebound — a sign of bearish dominance.

The 1-hour ADX is only 7.8, indicating no clear short-term trend and a sideways oscillation; however, the 4-hour shows strong downward pressure, suggesting short-term fluctuations within a long-term downtrend.

【Liquidation Heatmap】

Between $0.1069 and $0.1127, about $290k in long liquidations are accumulated — our target zone. Conversely, between $0.1191 and $0.1251, $260k in short liquidations create resistance — a rebound above this level is likely to get stuck, with a high probability of falling back toward $0.109.

【Risk Warning】

The 4-hour RSI is at 38.4, indicating oversold conditions, so a technical rebound to $0.120-$0.125 could occur — don’t be fooled. The 1-hour chart is oscillating (ADX 7.8), making entry points prone to false signals. Also, if the overall market surges past $90,000, it could trigger a broad rally in small coins, so be aware of this systemic risk.