BTC Bull Market Cycle Analysis: When Will the Next Wave Arrive Based on Historical Data

Want to know what a Bitcoin bull run means? In simple terms, it refers to a significant upward cycle in Bitcoin’s price.

Since its inception in 2009, BTC has experienced multiple astonishing rallies. The latest data shows that Bitcoin’s current price is around $88.87K, still with room to reach its all-time high of $126.08K. So, when will this wave arrive? Let’s first look for patterns in history.

From Chicago Crisis to Institutional Entry: A Review of Bitcoin’s Four Major Bull Markets

2013: The First Major Explosion

2013 can be considered the first time Bitcoin gained widespread attention. That year, BTC soared from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. What was behind this surge?

There are two main reasons. First, media coverage intensified, attracting a large number of retail investors. Second, the Cyprus banking crisis erupted, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets outside traditional finance. The advantages of BTC as a decentralized asset became immediately apparent.

But good times didn’t last. In early 2014, the largest exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked. At that time, 70% of global BTC trading was on this platform. This incident directly shattered market confidence, causing BTC to fall below $300.

2017: The Retail Frenzy Year

2017 was the craziest year in the crypto world. BTC skyrocketed from $1,000 at the start of the year to $20,000 in December, a staggering 1,900% increase.

What happened that year? ICO projects raised funds wildly, exchanges expanded significantly, and media hype reached unprecedented levels. Especially, some friendly trading platforms made it easy for ordinary people to buy coins, attracting a flood of retail investors. Daily trading volume surged from $200M at the start of the year to $15B by year’s end.

But at what cost? Starting early 2018, prices plummeted, and BTC eventually dropped to $3,200, an 84% decline from the peak. Meanwhile, regulators worldwide began to intervene—China shut down all ICOs and exchanges, further accelerating the bear market.

2020-2021: Institutional Influx

Compared to the previous retail-driven rallies, the bull market of 2020-2021 was backed by real institutional funds. BTC rose from $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase.

Where did the driving force come from? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injections, rising inflation expectations, and the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” gained popularity. Major companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla added BTC to their asset portfolios. By the end of 2021, publicly listed companies held over 125,000 BTC, with institutional inflows exceeding $10B.

But this wave also faced challenges. Environmental groups criticized Bitcoin mining’s energy consumption, and SEC regulatory pressures increased. By July 2021, BTC had fallen back from $64,000 to $30,000.

2024-25: ETF Boost

Currently ongoing. In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, a game changer.

Why? Because it allows traditional investors to hold BTC as easily as stocks, greatly lowering the entry barrier. As a result, in just 10 months, ETF net inflows exceeded $28B, surpassing gold ETF inflows.

Additionally, the fourth halving in April played a role in boosting the rally. BTC rose from $40,000 at the start of the year to $93,000 in November, a 132% increase.

However, challenges remain: high volatility, FOMO emotions, retail leverage liquidation risks, and ongoing regulatory uncertainties.

What Really Drives Bitcoin Bull Markets?

Understanding history is important, but more crucial is grasping what factors truly propel BTC upward.

The Magic of Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million coins, with a halving every four years. This mechanism inherently creates inflation expectations:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC surged 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving, BTC increased 315%
• Post-2020 halving, BTC rose 230%
• Post-2024 halving, BTC has already gained over 132%

The pattern is clear: supply reduction → asset scarcity → price increase. Moreover, this time, institutional accumulation has accelerated even more.

The Secrets in On-Chain Data

To judge when a true bull market is coming, look at on-chain data:

• Exchange BTC balances are decreasing (indicating whales are hoarding, not selling)
• Active addresses are rising (showing increased participation)
• Stablecoin inflows are increasing (signaling funds preparing to enter)

How do current data look? Exchange BTC reserves are at historic lows, active addresses exceed 55 million, all positive signals.

The Power of Institutional Recognition

The biggest change in 2024 is the strength of institutions. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds over 467,000 BTC, and all Bitcoin ETFs combined hold over 1 million BTC.

What does this mean? It signifies BTC has shifted from a “risk asset” to an “asset allocation tool.” Institutions don’t chase prices impulsively like retail investors; they hold long-term. This adds more stability to the market.

How to Tell When the Next Bull Market Is Coming?

Instead of guessing, learn to recognize signals.

Technical Signals

Indicators like RSI, 50-day and 200-day moving averages are reliable. In the 2024 bull market, BTC’s RSI broke above 70 (extremely bullish), and prices continuously broke key moving averages. These are signs of an upward trend.

Fundamental Signals

• Continuous ETF net inflows (currently over $28B)
• Favorable policy environment (e.g., Trump administration expressing support for crypto)
• Ongoing institutional accumulation (e.g., MicroStrategy keeps buying)

Sentiment Signals

Watch market sentiment indicators. When bullish/bearish ratios reach extremes (e.g., 80% bullish), be cautious. Currently, the ratio is around 50:50, indicating a relatively rational market.

Practical Tips for Ordinary Investors

Step 1: Build Correct Understanding

Bitcoin is not gambling; it’s an asset. It has its cycles, with ups and downs. Don’t expect to get rich overnight; understand why it rises.

Step 2: Choose Good Entry Points

Use reputable trading platforms (ensure 2FA, cold wallets, etc.), and build positions gradually rather than all-in at once.

Step 3: Manage Risks Well

• Set stop-loss points (e.g., sell if down 20%)
• Never use leverage to invest more than 10% of your account
• Avoid borrowing money to invest

Step 4: Hold Long-Term

Historical data shows that those who stick through the four-year cycles of BTC profit. Those who lose money are often retail investors panic-selling during bear markets.

Step 5: Keep Learning

Follow authoritative sources, participate in community discussions, stay updated on policies. Information gaps mean missed opportunities.

Where Will Bitcoin Go After 2025?

Several key points to watch:

Government Adoption

Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the BITCOIN Act, suggesting the US could buy 1 million BTC within five years. If passed, it would reshape the market. Countries like Bhutan have already profited from hoarding, and El Salvador adopted BTC as legal tender. If the US joins, Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold” will be firmly established.

Potential for Technological Upgrades

Upgrades like OP_CAT could enable Layer-2 scaling and DeFi applications on BTC. Imagine BTC not only as a store of value but also as a foundation for DeFi—this would drastically change its use cases.

Continued ETF Expansion

If spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital, institutional participation will keep growing. The current $28B inflow is just the beginning; long-term, it could reach hundreds of billions.

Key Timeline

The next halving is in 2028. Historical patterns suggest that 6-12 months before halving is the optimal period for positioning. So, 2027 might be another critical window.

Final Words

Bitcoin’s rise from $145 to $88.87K tells the entire growth story.

Every bull market has its drivers—2013 was driven by technological innovation, 2017 by retail enthusiasm, 2020-2021 by institutional recognition, and 2024-25 by policy friendliness.

When will the next wave come? No one can predict precisely, but we can prepare by observing on-chain data, institutional moves, and policy signals.

Most importantly: don’t chase highs, don’t borrow money, do your homework. Bitcoin’s cycles are long enough to give everyone a chance to participate. Are you ready?