December 26, 2025

ETH from the low of 11.21 at 2623.57 to the high of 12.11 at 3447.44 has been precisely tracked during its upward movement. Now, we are at a critical juncture.

On the evening of 12.24, I indicated that BTC was a false breakdown; ETH's trend was similar to BTC's. Veteran traders should know to reference this. It might be operating within a sideways adjustment probability. Although the adjustment could end and the price could start rising, how should we approach this wave of market movement?

As shown in the chart, ETH has two probable major trend paths:

Blue route: ETH consolidates sideways here, and during the subsequent adjustment, it will no longer have a solid K-line breaking below 2888.7. After reaching extreme convergence, it will suddenly break through and start rising, with a chance to break 3447.44 in mid to early January.

Red route: ETH starting from 2775.19 is just a rebound within the red box shown in the chart. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline. In the following days, once the adjustment endpoint is found, it will begin to rise again.

The difference between the two routes is that the blue path suggests the adjustment will end quickly. If an effective entry point isn't found, there’s a risk of missing the entire move. The red path involves a few more days of adjustment, but once the endpoint is identified, a wave of increase is also expected.

My strategy is to observe more closely in the coming days, looking for signs of stopping behavior during small retracements to attempt long positions. The stop-loss will be set to whether a solid K-line breaks below today’s starting point at 2889. If hit, I will look for opportunities to re-enter. To catch this big rally, taking on some trading costs like position sizing and stop-loss adjustments is necessary.

If the recent decline is strong and there’s no clear stopping behavior around 2889, or even around 2780, then the red path might be more likely. Keep a close watch. If stopping behavior appears, I will attempt again, possibly with a slightly wider stop-loss. First, refer to the previous low near 2623.57. As the market moves as expected, push it toward the recent low, then raise the position above the cost basis.

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