How long after the Bitcoin halving will it peak? Insights from historical cycles for the next bull market

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a unique “halving curse”—roughly every four years, the block reward is halved, followed by a new wave of price increases. But the key question is: how long after the halving does it take to reach the peak? The answer may determine your investment timing.

Halving and Bull Markets: A Predictable Cycle Game

The power of halving lies not in the event itself, but in its long-term impact on supply. Each halving slashes the rate of new coin issuance, triggering market “shortage anxiety.” Historical data clearly proves this:

After May 2012 halving, BTC rose from $5 to $1,200 (by late 2013), a 5,200% increase, reaching the cycle peak in about 18 months.

After July 2016 halving, BTC climbed from around $600 to $20,000 (by late 2017), a 3,150% increase, with a cycle length of approximately 18 months.

After May 2020 halving, BTC went from $8,500 to $64,000 (by April 2021), a 650% increase, with a cycle length of about 12 months.

After April 2024 halving, BTC rose from $40,000 to $126,080 (ATH), a 215% increase, and the cycle is still ongoing.

An interesting pattern emerges: typically, a peak occurs within 12-18 months after halving, rather than immediately. This lag reflects the time needed for market cognition to translate into action.

2024-2025 Cycle: Why Is This One Different?

Unlike previous halvings, the 2024 halving faces an unprecedented variable—the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF.

In January 2024, the SEC approved a spot BTC ETF, opening the door for traditional finance. So far, ETF net inflows have exceeded $2.8 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holding 467,000 BTC. This institutional-level entry, compared to the retail + tech company model of 2021, increases the “stickiness” of capital.

Current BTC price is around $88,870, about 30% below the all-time high of $126,080. Based on historical cycles, this halving cycle may still need 6-12 months of brewing before reaching its final peak.

Three Major Factors Influencing the Top Post-Halving

1. Pace of Institutional Capital Inflows

2013-2017 was a retail-led bull market, with 2020-2021 introducing corporate buyers (Tesla, MicroStrategy). 2024 sees collective participation from asset management institutions. Slow but persistent institutional inflows extend the bull cycle.

2. Policy Expectations Fulfillment

Signals like the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration, the BITCOIN Act (US Treasury plans to buy 1 million BTC over five years), and other policy cues are continuously released. Such institutional support often boosts asset prices during anticipation periods. When policies are implemented or expectations shattered, the top often follows.

3. On-Chain Supply Exhaustion

Currently, exchange BTC reserves are at historic lows, with large holders accumulating. MicroStrategy has added thousands of BTC in 2024. The tightness of supply determines the sustainability of the rise—scarcer supply may lead to higher peaks but also sharper declines after the top.

Historical Patterns of Top Formation After Halving

This table reveals a paradox: the larger the increase, the shorter the cycle; the more moderate, the longer the cycle. This reflects market sentiment duality—extreme optimism leads to quick peaks, while rational institutional strategies extend the bull run.

Key Time Windows in 2025

Based on halving cycles and current market progress, the following time points are noteworthy:

Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar): ETF continues to attract institutional funds; technical consolidation may occur around $100K-$110K. FOMO begins to spread but not yet frantic.

Q2 2025 (Apr-Jun): About 13-14 months after halving, historically, a top often appears in this window. If there’s positive policy news (e.g., government announces Bitcoin strategic reserves), this could be the final peak.

Q3 2025 (Jul-Sep): If no top in Q2, Q3 might be the last sprint, but risks will also rise significantly.

Correlation with Other Assets

Bitcoin’s top timing also depends on macroeconomic factors. Changes in US Treasury yields, the dollar index, and global liquidity matter. If the Fed begins a new rate-cut cycle or geopolitical black swans emerge, BTC’s safe-haven attributes may activate, prolonging the bull market. Conversely, rising inflation and Fed rate hikes could accelerate the top.

How to Prepare for the Coming Top?

Gradual Profit-Taking, Not Full Exit: History shows 2-3 waves before the top. Avoid trying to sell at the absolute peak; instead, consider trimming positions at $110K-$120K in stages.

Set Technical Stop-Losses: Watch BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) and the 50/200-day moving averages. When RSI from overbought levels (>80) begins to decline, or price drops below the 200-day MA, these are risk signals.

Avoid Excessive Leverage: The final phase of halving cycles carries the highest risk. Even if bullish, control your position size and prepare for 20-30% corrections.

Monitor Spot and Futures Divergence: When spot premiums exceed 5%, it often indicates retail FOMO at extremes, signaling an approaching top.

Final Thoughts: Cycles Are Ever-Present, but Patterns Change

The patterns from the past three halving cycles are well priced in. But current variables—ETF, policy support, institutional participation—are rewriting the script. The 2024-2025 halving cycle may not fully replicate history, but the core logic remains: tightening supply + growing demand + friendly policies = an upward cycle.

The 12-18 months after halving are the golden window, but the exact top timing depends on the interaction of the three major factors above. With about 8 months since the April 2024 halving, median estimates suggest the peak could occur in Q2-Q3 2025. Whether BTC can break through the $126K new high will depend on continued institutional inflows and major policy developments.

For investors, time is not the enemy—rationality is. During the ascent of the halving cycle, focus on following the trend, taking profits timely, and preparing for the inevitable next bear market.