#数字资产市场动态 BTC Market Watch

The recent 24-hour Bitcoin increase is 1.45%, swaying amidst complex market signals. Nothing seems particularly unusual at first glance, but digging deeper reveals quite a few interesting insights.

What is the market resilience?

Although recent ETF fund outflows and increased sell-offs have exerted pressure, Bitcoin has shown another side—institutions are quietly accumulating, and supply is beginning to tighten. This contradictory phenomenon reflects market segmentation.

Next, it might be a rollercoaster ride. $23.6 billion in options are about to expire, and there is a lack of clear support in the $70,000 to $80,000 range. A mountain of call options at high prices could trigger significant price volatility once activated.

The long-term story is still unfolding. Analysts remain optimistic about the future, even predicting a "super cycle"—by 2027, Bitcoin's price target could reach $750,000. This indicates that despite short-term disturbances, confidence in long-term growth remains intact.

Who is buying?

Metaplanet plans to acquire up to 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027. A company willing to hold such a large amount long-term shows how deep institutional confidence in Bitcoin runs. This is not short-term trading; it’s genuine faith investment.

Looking at percentiles, Bitcoin has historically spent 70% of the time trading higher than its current price. Long-term investors holding now are actually facing a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Supply is quietly tightening. Although ETF funds sometimes flow out, overall institutional funds are flowing back in. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges—large holders are withdrawing coins, whales are accumulating. Available supply is decreasing, which usually indicates what?

Where are the risks?

Options expiration is unavoidable. The $23.6 billion in options expiring simultaneously, especially with a concentration of call options at high levels, could easily trigger sharp market fluctuations.

The ETF side is also bleeding. On Wednesday, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together saw outflows of $232 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone losing $91.37 million. Traders are reducing positions before Christmas, a signal worth noting.

Selling pressure has already emerged. A whale that had been dormant for three years suddenly withdrew 181 Bitcoin (worth $15.8 million) from exchanges, and another trader opened a short position worth $30.84 million (353.37 BTC) with 10x leverage. Short positions are gathering.

What is the community paying attention to?

The $23 billion options expiration topic is flooding the community. Some expect significant volatility, while others are worried about potential sharp shocks. Sentiment swings between extremes, which precisely reflects the current market uncertainty—there are strong reasons to be bullish, but bearish signals also exist.