The recent statements by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo have instantly flipped the market landscape. Stable wage growth, persistent inflation above the 2% target, and significantly low real interest rates—all point to the same conclusion: the era of free lunch for yen depreciation arbitrage has officially come to an end, and rate hikes next year are now a certainty.

This is not just a simple policy adjustment but a fundamental shift in the global financial ecosystem. Over the past 30 years, Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment attracted global capital—borrowing cheap yen to chase high-yield assets. This mechanism continuously supplied liquidity to the market. Now, with this "Japanese ATM" suddenly shutting down, the consequences are chain reactions:

Government bond yields are forced to reprice, global leverage allocations face a break-like adjustment, and asset prices are revalued often accompanied by increased volatility. The market shift from "lying flat" to "rampaging" is now imminent.

For the crypto market, the impact is even more direct. As the most liquidity-sensitive asset class, when the global arbitrage mechanism collapses and leverage is gradually released, BTC and mainstream cryptocurrencies will find it hard to remain unaffected. The tightening of capital is not a short-term disturbance but a medium-term structural pressure.

The gameplay in this cycle has changed. Understanding the new market rules in advance and assessing your risk tolerance are more critical than blindly increasing positions. Whether you can find new support points before the liquidity tide recedes will determine who survives to the next cycle.