Major investment banks have been buzzing about the Federal Reserve's 2026 policy outlook, but after carefully reviewing these reports, it becomes clear that traditional institutions and the crypto community are focused on fundamentally different things.

**The big players count steps; we should focus on the direction**

Danske predicts rate cuts in March and June, Citi bets on September, and SocGen says March will be the last—just listening to these forecasts can make your head spin. But if you peel back the details, you'll find a more critical fact: by 2026, no mainstream investment bank dares to call for rate hikes.

How important is this signal? It means the darkest hours of liquidity tightening are counting down. Even if there's only one rate cut, or if it drags into September at year-end, once the direction reverses, it will mark a key turning point in global capital sentiment. The crypto world has never been about the volume of water, but about the flow's direction.

**The unemployment rate that BlackRock cares about is the real hidden mine**

These institutions are all worried about one issue: a sudden collapse in the labor market. The Fed's fear might be deeper than its concern about inflation.

Here's a counterintuitive thought: if the employment situation truly deteriorates rapidly in 2026, the Fed might unhesitatingly open the floodgates for rate cuts. At that moment, traditional financial assets could panic, but the crypto market—due to its unique liquidity characteristics—would become one of the few battlegrounds capable of instantly capturing capital flows. This is not speculation; the March 2020 market crash has already played out once.

**The hidden energy behind the 5% depreciation of the dollar**

One judgment from Mitsubishi UFJ is worth pondering: the dollar index could fall by 5%. At first glance, this seems modest, but considering how much hot money the dollar has attracted globally over the past two years, even a limited decline could be enough to trigger those with keen senses to rush into high-volatility, high-consensus assets like crypto. A weakening dollar means increased relative attractiveness of non-US assets, which is a clear signal for cross-border capital flows.

**How to respond now? Three keywords**

**Hold**: Stay firm. Don't be shaken out by short-term volatility. 2026 is a policy turning point year; holding onto your positions is already a victory.

**Watch**: But not just the price movements. Pay close attention to employment data releases, changes in Fed officials' wording—these are the real indicators.

**Accumulate**: Before liquidity truly surges, buy in dips gradually. Focus on projects and tokens that can withstand a cold winter cycle. Instead of obsessing over what exactly to buy, ensure you still remain in the game.

This market requires patience and timing. Wait for opportunities, act decisively, and execute precisely.