A Brief History of Bitcoin Bull Market Cycles: From Explosive Growth to Winter, Will the Next Round Come?

As the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has experienced several remarkable bull and bear markets since its inception in 2009. Each cycle is accompanied by different market drivers and shifts in investor psychology. For investors looking to seize the next wave of market opportunities, understanding the operational规律 of these cycles is crucial.

What is the essence of Bitcoin’s bull market?

Bitcoin’s bull market cycle does not appear out of thin air but results from the combined effects of multiple factors. This phase typically features notable characteristics: sustained price increases, surging trading volume, social media buzz, and active wallet activity.

Historical data speaks: From May to December 2013, Bitcoin soared from about $145 to $1,200, a 730% increase; throughout 2017, from $1,000 to nearly $20,000, a roughly 1,900% rise; from early 2020 to April 2021, from $8,000 to $64,000, a 700% increase.

These surges are often accompanied by突破技术指标——如相对强弱指数(RSI)超过70、价格突破50日和200日均线。最关键的是，这些突破通常意味着新资金的入场，而他们的参与会进一步推高价格。

The magic of halving events: Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, directly reducing miners’ rewards and thus decreasing new coin supply. This人为的“稀缺性”制造常成为牛市的导火索。数据显示，2012年减半后，Bitcoin上涨了5200%；2016年减半后上涨了315%；2020年减半后上涨了230%。

2024-2025年：现货ETF时代的新牛市

在回顾历史之前，先看看当前。根据最新数据，Bitcoin目前价格约$88,940，较年初上涨约2%。这个看似温和的涨幅背后，隐藏着不同寻常的市场结构变化。

ETF的批准改变了游戏规则。2024年1月SEC批准首批现货Bitcoin ETF后，局势急转直下。到11月，ETF累计流入超过$28亿，这一数字已超越黄金ETF的历史表现。BlackRock的IBIT基金单独持有超过467,000枚BTC。

这意味着什么？意味着曾经只有极客和投机者关注的Bitcoin，如今已成为华尔街机构配置的必选项。MicroStrategy、Tesla、Square等科技巨头早已将Bitcoin作为资产配置的一部分。

4月的减半事件再次验证了这一规律。此次减半后，Bitcoin从约$40,000一路上涨，市场高点触及$93,000。市场的每一步都在重复历史的节拍。

Those forgotten lessons of bull markets

2013: First touch of human imagination’s boundary

2013 can be called Bitcoin’s “enlightenment year.” In just 7 months, this digital currency transformed from an obscure asset to headlines in financial media.

What triggered this surge? First, the media effect’s initial爆发——每次价格创新高都会引发新闻轰炸，吸引更多好奇的资金涌入。Second, the Cyprus banking crisis made people realize that centralized financial institutions might be unreliable, and Bitcoin’s value proposition was validated by reality for the first time.

But here’s the problem. In early 2014, the market witnessed its first large-scale crash. Major exchanges’ security vulnerabilities led to大量Bitcoin被盗，市场信心瞬间瓦解。价格从$1,200跌至$300，跌幅达75%。这个教训深刻地烙在了整个行业——基础设施的脆弱性是最大的风险。

2017: Era of retail dominance

2017 marked Bitcoin’s first true “全民运动.” From $1,000 to $20,000, this rally made countless retail investors dream of overnight riches. Trading volume grew from less than $20 billion daily at the start of the year to $15 billion daily by year’s end.

驱动力来自三个方面：ICO泡沫（新项目通过发币融资，吸引大量散户）、交易平台的激增（降低了参与门槛）、媒体的助推。每个茶余饭后的话题都是"你买Bitcoin了吗"。

However, this狂欢总是要付出代价的。2018年，市场进入冰河期，Bitcoin跌至$3,200，跌幅超过80%。同时，各国监管机构开始出拳——中国禁止了ICO和交易所，美国SEC开始审视加密市场。

这次熊市教会了市场一个道理：不受管制的繁荣必然导致不受管制的崩溃。

2020-2021: Institutional awakening

This cycle is entirely different. No longer a retail frenzy, but Wall Street’s entry.

MicroStrategy announced converting part of its treasury into Bitcoin; Tesla publicly bought $1.5 billion worth of BTC; institutions like Square and Grayscale continued accumulating. Why? Because against the backdrop of ultra-low interest rates and massive fiscal stimulus, the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” and an inflation hedge was reignited.

This bull run saw Bitcoin rise from $8,000 to $64,000, but with a key difference——the涨幅虽只有700%，但市场参与者的质量更高，抛售压力相对较小。BitSTEA数据显示，机构持有的Bitcoin比例从个位数上升到两位数。

However, the May 2021 flash crash showed even institutions can’t fully eliminate market volatility. A regulatory statement or a technical glitch can trigger a 50% drop.

The unique features of the current cycle

Compared to previous cycles, 2024-2025’s bull market has several distinctive features:

1. Clearer regulation: No longer a chaotic era of各国各自为政。美国已明确立场。拜登政府的前任支持者、现任政界人士都在讨论Bitcoin作为战略资源的可能性。Senator Cynthia Lummis提出的《2024年Bitcoin法案》建议美国财政部在5年内购入100万BTC。这不是未来式，而是现在进行式。

2. Supply-side lock: After halving, new Bitcoin issuance per 10 minutes drops from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Meanwhile, Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC as national assets, El Salvador continues to build positions. This means liquidity in the market is decreasing while demand is increasing.

3. Technical breakthroughs: Discussions around OP_CAT升级正在升温。如果获批，它将使Bitcoin能够处理更复杂的智能合约，最终可能支持Layer-2扩展方案。这意味着Bitcoin不仅仅是"数字黄金"，还可能演变为"计算平台"。

4. Market sentiment polarization: According to current sentiment indices, bullish and bearish sentiments are each at 50%. This完全的两分局面表明市场处于决策点——要么继续上升，要么陷入长期盘整。

When will it end? This is the hardest question

Technical warning signs

To predict when the next bull market might end, technical signals offer some clues. Historically, major tops often occur under these scenarios:

• RSI reaches extreme levels (above 80) and begins to divergence
• Price repeatedly tests关键阻力位但无法突破
• Trading volume starts to shrink, indicating diminishing buying pressure
• On-chain data shows “whales” (large holders) start taking profits

Currently, these signals are not yet obvious, but require ongoing monitoring.

Macroeconomic uncertainties

Larger threats come from macroeconomic factors:

• Inflation expectations change: If the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates, investors may shift to safer assets
• Geopolitical shocks: Any black swan event reducing risk appetite could trigger sell-offs
• Regulatory reversals: Although current policies are friendly, a shift in political stance could bring new restrictions
• Rising energy costs: Significant increases in electricity prices could impair miners’ cost structures, potentially triggering sell-offs

Market psychology turning point

Every bull market eventually shifts from greed to fear. This turning point is usually triggered by:

1. Narrative reversal in media: From “Bitcoin changes the world” to “Bitcoin is a bubble”
2. Massive retail participation: When your barber or taxi driver talks about Bitcoin, it often signals a top is near
3. Institutional strategy shifts: When major players start reducing holdings instead of increasing, it’s a clear signal
4. Rising financing costs: When the cost of margin financing begins to rise, liquidity is tightening

Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s bull cycle typically lasts 18-24 months. The last cycle started at the end of 2022, so it has been about 13 months now. According to the规律, there is still 5-11 months of upward potential, but this is only a statistical probability, not a certainty.

How to prepare for an uncertain future

Since we cannot precisely predict the top, how should investment strategies be adjusted?

Step 1: Layered accumulation. Avoid all-in positions; instead, build positions gradually. For example, allocate 50% at current prices, 30% at the next support level, and keep 20% as a “last bullet.”

Step 2: Set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit points. For long-term investors, consider taking partial profits at key highs—e.g., sell 30% at $100,000, another 20% at $120,000. This way, you participate in the upside while protecting profits at critical points.

Step 3: Monitor on-chain data. Don’t just look at candlestick charts; observe Bitcoin’s on-chain flow. When大量Bitcoin从交易所流出进入钱包，意味着持有人更看好未来；当大量流入时，意味着有人在兑现。

Step 4: Diversify risk. While Bitcoin is the largest crypto asset, don’t allocate all funds to a single asset. Consider other relatively stable assets as hedges.

Step 5: Avoid emotional decisions. When 24-hour gains hit 10%, FOMO (fear of missing out) may drive you to buy aggressively; when drops reach 10%, fear may push you to sell. The biggest mistakes often happen at these moments.

Possibilities for the future

Scenario 1: Continued ascent (probability: 40%)

If the following conditions persist:

• ETF continues to attract inflows
• Regulation remains friendly
• No unexpected macro shocks

Bitcoin could continue upward, even突破$100,000。这将创造新的心理高度，吸引更多机构参与。在这种情景下，牛市可能延续至2025年中期。

Scenario 2: Long-term consolidation (probability: 35%)

If the market enters a “hesitation phase”:

• Liquidity growth slows
• Technicals fail to突破关键阻力位
• Macro data remains mixed

Bitcoin may oscillate between $80,000 and $100,000, forming a consolidation period. Such accumulation typically lasts 3-6 months.

Scenario 3: Rapid correction (probability: 25%)

If any of the black swan events occur:

• Major security incident
• Unexpected regulatory reversal
• Geopolitical shocks reducing risk appetite

A 20%-40% rapid correction could happen. But historical experience shows such corrections often set the stage for a stronger rebound.

Summary: Preparing for the long term

Bitcoin’s every bull market is like a grand drama, with ups and downs, joys and tears. But from a longer-term perspective, the trend is clear——from marginalization to mainstream, from speculation to asset allocation, from retail game to institutional participation.

As for the question “When will the crypto bull run end,” the answer is: no one truly knows. But by continuous learning, monitoring key indicators, and maintaining rationality, we can improve our response.

Most importantly, remember——there are always warning signals before a decline. The key is whether you can identify them and have the courage to sell in greed. History shows that well-prepared investors, even if they can’t precisely top out, can still gain substantial returns in the next cycle.

The next halving is approximately 4 years away. During this period, policy environment, technological upgrades, and institutional involvement may change dramatically. If you’re a long-term holder, the best strategy is to keep learning and adjusting throughout this process. If you’re a short-term trader, sharper insights and stricter discipline are required.

In any case, Bitcoin’s story is far from over. The most exciting parts may still be ahead.