#加密市场小幅回暖 Three Major Signs Indicate Bitcoin (BTC) Is Bottoming Out

The selling pressure on Bitcoin may be weakening, thanks to stabilizing momentum, miners beginning to capitulate, and liquidity conditions shifting to support. Based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple technical and on-chain indicators, Bitcoin may be forming a local bottom, after its price retraced over 35% from the all-time high of approximately $126,200 set two months ago.
Key points: Momentum, miner capitulation, and liquidity indicators all point to diminishing selling pressure.
Macro liquidity data suggests BTC could start to recover within the next four to six weeks. Bitcoin’s selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. As of December, the weekly stochastic relative strength index (Stochastic RSI) has begun to rise from oversold levels. Trader Jesse pointed out that this pattern has historically appeared near key turning points, often followed by a rebound. Similar bullish crossover patterns occurred in early 2019 (after BTC bottomed near $3,200), March 2020 (around $3,800 during the COVID crisis low), and late 2022 (around $15,500 cycle low). In each case, technical momentum shifted first, with prices lagging behind.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s three-day chart is forming a bullish divergence, with prices making lower lows but momentum indicators not following suit. This pattern has also appeared before mid-2021 correction lows and prior to the bottom triggered by the 2022 FTX crisis, both of which foreshadowed market rebounds in the subsequent months. These signals collectively suggest that Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be exhausted in the near term, a condition more typical of market bottoms rather than short-term technical rebounds.
Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Indicates BTC Has Bottomed
VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush stated that within a month ending December 15, Bitcoin’s hash rate declined by 4%, which they see as a "bullish contrarian signal" closely related to miner capitulation. These analysts pointed out that historical data shows that prolonged hash rate compression often precedes strong subsequent performance for Bitcoin. Since 2014, after a 30-day hash rate decline, BTC experienced positive 90-day returns 65% of the time. This signal is even more robust over longer periods, with 77% of 180-day returns being positive and an average gain of 72%. Rising prices could also improve miner profitability and incentivize previously idle mining capacity to come back online. Bitcoin could see a rebound within 4-6 weeks, as a macro indicator suggests BTC is approaching a bottom because liquidity conditions are beginning to improve, historically a precursor to major reversals.
Analyst Miad Kasravi’s backtest of 105 indicators shows that the peak of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) typically leads Bitcoin rebounds by 4 to 6 weeks. This signal appeared at the end of 2022 and mid-2024, both before sharp Bitcoin rallies. Historically, every 0.10 point decline in NFCI has been associated with approximately 15%-20% increases in Bitcoin price, with lower NFCI readings indicating a long-term bullish phase for BTC. As of December, the NFCI stood at -0.52 and continued to trend downward.
A potential catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s plan to convert mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bonds, Kasravi noted. This move is similar to the liquidity injection during the 2019 "non-QE" period, which triggered a 40% rally in Bitcoin.
Despite these positive signals, many market analysts expect Bitcoin’s price could still decline further, with price targets in the $70,000 range.