Cryptocurrency Market Cycle Code: Revealing When Bitcoin Will Experience the Next Rally

The Core Drivers of the Bitcoin Bull Market

The ups and downs of the crypto market are rarely random; they are driven by clear structural factors. The reason Bitcoin experiences explosive growth during certain periods stems from three key engines: the supply squeeze caused by halving events, the influx of institutional funds, and the gradual optimization of regulatory frameworks.

By understanding these driving forces, investors can more accurately predict when a bull market will arrive. Historical data shows that within 12 to 18 months after each halving, Bitcoin typically experiences significant gains. After the 2012 halving, it increased by 5200%; after 2016, by 315%; after 2020, by 230%—this cyclical pattern has been repeatedly validated by the market.

What is the current situation? The fourth halving in April 2024 has been completed, and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs (January 2024) is continuously bringing in new institutional capital. As of the latest data, Bitcoin has already reached $88.77K, up over 130% since the beginning of the year, with market sentiment remaining balanced (50% bullish and 50% bearish).

Identifying Bull Market Signals: Dual Confirmation from Technical and On-Chain Data

Determining whether a bull market is truly underway cannot rely solely on price trends. Professional investors consider signals from three dimensions:

Technical Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving average crossovers, and support/resistance levels are important references. When RSI rebounds from oversold territory and stays above 50, it often indicates increasing upward momentum.

On-Chain Data Reveals True Intentions: Increased stablecoin inflows into exchanges suggest funds are preparing to enter the market, while declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges reflect accumulation by large holders. When wallet activity surges and large transactions become frequent, the presence of institutional players is evident. In 2024, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $28 billion, a number that itself is a strong bull signal—far surpassing the inflow scale of global gold ETFs.

Macroeconomic Factors: The Federal Reserve’s policy shifts, inflation expectations, and geopolitical situations also play crucial roles. When traditional financial markets face uncertainty, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” for hedging is activated.

The Three Iterations of Past Bull Markets: From Speculation to Institutions to Policy

First Round: The Primitive Wild Growth of 2013

In 2013, Bitcoin soared from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. The driving force behind this rebound was primitive—panic triggered by the Cyprus banking crisis led funds to seek safe havens, and Bitcoin, as an emerging decentralized asset, gained attention.

But this period was fraught with risks. The collapse of Mt. Gox shattered investor confidence, and Bitcoin subsequently fell below $300 in 2014, a 75% decline. This blow taught the market key lessons: the security of infrastructure and market maturity are critical.

Second Round: Retail Frenzy and Regulatory Awakening in 2017

2017 marked the era of “全民运动” (mass participation). From $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% surge, everyone was talking about Bitcoin, even those with no blockchain knowledge. The driving force was the ICO boom—new projects raised funds via token crowdfunding, attracting many retail investors who then developed a strong interest in Bitcoin. Daily trading volume exploded from less than $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion.

What was the cost? Regulatory fury. China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges, and regulators worldwide expressed concern. Bitcoin plummeted from its peak of $20,000 to $3,200 in December 2018, an 84% drop. Retail investors’ joy was completely wiped out by liquidations.

Third Round: 2020-2021 Institutional Adoption and the “Digital Gold” Narrative

This time, the game changed. Listed companies like MicroStrategy and Square began including Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with institutional inflows exceeding $10 billion. By April 2021, Bitcoin reached $64,000, later hitting a record high of $69,000.

The driving forces shifted from retail FOMO to rational institutional allocation. The liquidity flood and inflation expectations triggered by COVID-19 established Bitcoin’s role as an “inflation hedge.” The entry of institutions also brought derivatives like futures and ETFs, significantly improving market infrastructure.

2024-2025: The ETF Golden Age and Halving Cycle Resonance

The current bull market environment is unique and robust. In January 2024, the US SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is not just a product approval but a gateway for traditional finance to open up to Bitcoin. ETFs allow institutions and retail investors to gain exposure without self-custody or security concerns, simply through familiar investment accounts.

The results are remarkable: ETF inflows have exceeded $28 billion, and Bitcoin has risen from $40,000 at the start of the year to the current $88.77K, a 132% increase. Meanwhile, the April 2024 halving reduced mining rewards, further tightening supply. Institutions like MicroStrategy have increased their holdings by thousands of BTC, further reducing circulating supply.

Market sentiment indicators are currently balanced (50% bullish, 50% bearish), reflecting market maturity—both optimists and cautious investors coexist, unlike the previous extreme euphoria.

How Will the Future Version of the Bitcoin Bull Market Evolve?

Based on current trends, the bull market in the coming years will feature new characteristics:

Potential for Government Strategic Reserves: Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a 2024 Bitcoin bill suggesting the US Treasury could acquire up to 1 million BTC over five years, transforming Bitcoin from a “commodity” to a “national asset.” Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC, and El Salvador continues to increase holdings—if more countries follow suit, the demand for Bitcoin as “digital gold” will rise to a new level.

Imagination of Technological Upgrades: If OP_CAT code is approved, it will unlock Bitcoin’s Layer-2 scaling capabilities, enabling thousands of transactions per second and directly threatening Ethereum’s monopoly in DeFi. This would greatly enhance Bitcoin’s practicality and transactional value.

Maturation of Regulatory Frameworks: More transparent reporting standards and sound regulation will attract conservative investors and weed out pure speculators. This will make the bull market more resilient, unlike the previous bubble prone to collapse.

Preparing for the Next Market Cycle: An Investor’s Practical Checklist

If you believe the next bull market is imminent, how should you position yourself?

Step 1: Deepen Your Knowledge. Study Bitcoin’s technical principles, historical cycles, and halving mechanisms. Comparing the drivers of the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull markets reveals that each rebound had different logic. This understanding will help you quickly identify opportunities when they arise.

Step 2: Develop a Strategy. Clarify your risk tolerance and time horizon. Are you aiming for short-term trading or long-term holding? How much capital will you allocate to Bitcoin, and how much will be diversified into other assets? A balanced portfolio can effectively buffer extreme market volatility.

Step 3: Choose a Trading Platform. Select a reputable exchange with strong security measures, support for multiple assets, and a user-friendly interface. Enable two-factor authentication and set withdrawal whitelists—these basic security steps are simple but vital.

Step 4: Protect Your Assets. For long-term holdings, hardware wallets are essential. Use exchange accounts for trading and cold wallets for storage—this separation minimizes risk.

Step 5: Continuous Monitoring. Follow regulatory news, halving countdowns, institutional inflow data, and macroeconomic indicators. A simple method is subscribing to trusted crypto news sources and regularly reviewing market conditions.

Step 6: Maintain Discipline. Avoid emotional decisions during market volatility and stick to your established strategy. Use stop-loss orders to protect your downside and avoid over-leverage. Historically, the most successful investors are not those with perfect timing but those with strict discipline.

When Will the Next Bull Market Arrive? Key Catalysts to Watch

While predicting the exact timing of a bull market is impossible, we can monitor several key catalysts:

Upcoming Halving Cycle—the next Bitcoin halving is expected around 2028, and history shows that the 12-18 months following halving are high-return windows.

Approval of New ETFs and Derivatives—if spot Ethereum ETFs, Bitcoin options, and other products are approved, they will attract new institutional capital.

Government Adoption Progress—if major countries like the US begin to hold Bitcoin as strategic reserves, it will be a historic catalyst.

Macroeconomic Shifts—if global central banks start cutting interest rates or face new inflation pressures, investors will reassess Bitcoin’s value.

Implementation of Technological Upgrades—scalability improvements on the Bitcoin network will directly enhance its utility and attractiveness.

History shows that Bitcoin possesses resilient vitality. It has survived numerous death predictions, regulatory crackdowns, and market crashes, rising from the ashes time and again. The reasons behind this are its unique scarcity (fixed at 21 million), decentralization, and expanding use cases.

For investors, the key is not to guess the exact timing of the next bull run but to stay prepared. Keep updating your knowledge, adhere to risk management principles, and diversify your assets—these unchanging rules will help you profit in any market cycle. The next rebound may be quietly beginning, or it may still be waiting, but a prepared investor will never be caught off guard by sudden opportunities.