Has the Bitcoin bull market truly started? Analyzing the 2024 cycle for the next rebound opportunity

The signals indicating the start of a bull market have already emerged

Recently, discussions about “whether the bull market has already begun” are everywhere, but based on 2024 data, the answer might be clearer than you think.

As of now, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around $88.83K. Although it’s still below the all-time high of $126.08K, several strong bullish signals are hidden behind this. Continuous inflows into spot ETFs, accelerated institutional deployment, and the halving cycle playing its role—all these are not small events; they are redefining Bitcoin’s status as a financial asset.

Why is this cycle different?

From retail to institutional era transformation

Looking back at Bitcoin’s bull markets, each has its unique driving force. In 2013, it was the early explorers’ stage, with Bitcoin soaring from $145 in May to $1,200 in December (+730%). In 2017, it was the era of retail frenzy, skyrocketing from $1,000 to $20,000 (+1,900%), but then collapsing over 80%.

By 2020-2021, the game changed. Listed companies like MicroStrategy and Square began to deploy, with Bitcoin jumping from $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%). This time, institutional investors took center stage. The story of 2024 is even more interesting—In January, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, and once that door opened, capital kept flowing in.

What did ETF approval change?

Since early 2024, the cumulative inflow into Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $45 billion. This is no small number—it signifies that the gates of traditional finance have been fully opened to digital assets. In comparison, global gold ETF inflows are modest.

The logic behind this is simple: Previously, investing in Bitcoin required managing wallets, exchange accounts, and private keys—high barriers to entry. Now, through ETFs, conservative institutional investors like pension funds and insurance companies can participate easily, just like buying stocks.

The halving cycle continues to play its role

The fourth halving in April 2024 once again confirmed a pattern: each halving brings new bullish expectations. This is no coincidence—halving directly reduces miners’ rewards, decreasing the supply growth of new Bitcoin.

Historical data is convincing:

• After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin increased by 5200%
• After the 2016 halving, it increased by 315%
• After the 2020 halving, it increased by 230%
• After the 2024 halving, the current increase has reached +132% (from $40K in January to now)

While this pattern isn’t ironclad, it’s reliable enough. As scarcity increases and institutional demand grows, price pressures will naturally be released.

Political and policy support

Former President Trump’s return has injected new optimism into the crypto market. Several politicians have expressed support for Bitcoin, and proposals to include Bitcoin in national strategic reserves have emerged in the US. Although these are still in discussion, such policy tilt alone is enough to spark investors’ imagination.

Not only the US, but countries like Bhutan and El Salvador have already included Bitcoin in their official reserves. Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC through state investment agencies, and El Salvador holds about 5,875 BTC. This government-level recognition is changing Bitcoin’s international status.

But risks are lurking

Market overheating warning

When retail investors start entering en masse and FOMO spreads, it often signals a bubble brewing. While ETFs lower the entry barrier, they also attract many short-term traders. Once big institutions decide to take profits, latecomer retail investors may end up holding the bag.

Regulatory uncertainty

Although 2024 appears policy-friendly, how long can this attitude last? The US SEC’s stance on regulation is unstable; a single strict policy statement can suppress the entire market. Regulatory differences worldwide also create obstacles—some countries remain cautious about cryptocurrencies.

Macroeconomic variables

Recession, rising interest rates, reignited inflation—these macro factors can shift investor focus. When economic conditions worsen, investors tend to move toward safer assets rather than volatile ones like Bitcoin.

Altcoin diversion

As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, achieving 300%, 500% type gains becomes more difficult. Emerging coins with special features are starting to attract investor attention, diverting some capital.

Will the next bull market come?

Based on historical patterns, the answer is yes. But “when” and “how strong” remains uncertain.

Potential catalysts for the next wave:

1. Promotion of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset — If the US truly initiates an official reserve plan, even if only purchasing a portion annually, demand will keep rising.

2. More diversified institutional products — Besides spot ETFs, futures products, mutual funds, and trust products have significant growth potential.

3. Technological upgrades to the Bitcoin network — Upgrades like OP_CAT can enable Bitcoin to support more complex DeFi applications, expanding its use cases.

4. Global government imitation — If more countries follow suit and include Bitcoin in their reserves, supply pressure will further increase.

How to prepare for a possible bull run

Step 1: Understand the basics
Don’t follow blindly. Spend time understanding Bitcoin’s technical principles, monetary policy, and market cycles. Read the whitepaper, follow reputable financial media—these basics can help you avoid many mistakes.

Step 2: Develop a clear strategy
Ask yourself three questions: Do I want quick profits or long-term appreciation? How much loss can I tolerate? How much should I invest? Use these answers to set your buy-in plan and stop-loss points.

Step 3: Choose a secure platform
Not all exchanges are reliable. Look for those with strong security measures, good user experience, and support for multiple assets. Remember to enable two-factor authentication and set withdrawal white lists.

Step 4: Safeguard your assets
If you’re a long-term holder, hardware wallets are essential. Offline storage maximizes protection against hacking.

Step 5: Keep monitoring market signals
Track ETF inflows, regulatory news, macroeconomic data. These signals help you judge market direction and rhythm.

Step 6: Manage emotions and avoid impulsiveness
Market volatility is the easiest time to make mistakes. Stick to your strategy—don’t sell out of fear, and don’t chase highs out of greed. Use stop-loss orders to automatically protect gains.

Step 7: Understand tax implications
Crypto trading may involve tax issues, depending on your country. Consult professionals in advance, keep good records—this can save you trouble later.

Final thoughts

Has the bull market already started? From technical, capital, and policy perspectives, there are indeed strong signals. But “started” doesn’t mean “can make money just by lying down.” The Bitcoin market is known for its volatility; prices may sharply retrace in the short term or continue upward.

The key is to understand: Bitcoin has evolved from a geek experiment into today’s financial asset. The influx of institutional investors, increased government attention, and improved market infrastructure are all changing Bitcoin’s nature.

No matter what the next step is, staying alert, well-informed, and prepared is the best way to survive in this market full of opportunities and risks. The next opportunity for Bitcoin might be right in front of you or still waiting—those who are prepared will always seize that moment.