Entering 2026, the market begins to scrutinize whether the growth story of the US stock market last year can continue—can those companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure truly turn that money into performance?

This involves two issues. First, the technology sector itself: whether the growth rate of capital expenditure will slow down, whether industry competition will intensify, and whether the return on investment can meet expectations—all of which directly impact how long tech stocks can sustain their valuations. Second, the broader US economic environment: with inflation still sticky and employment weakening, these two hurdles could limit the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates.

But don’t be too pessimistic. The expectation of rate cuts in 2026 could still support risk assets. If rate cuts are accompanied by moderate inflation and a soft landing of the economy, the stock market might continue to fluctuate upward; conversely, if rate cuts are due to increasing recession pressures, corporate earnings may need to be revised downward, valuations could be pressured, and performance across different sectors will likely diverge significantly.

The logic for gold is more straightforward—it mainly depends on real interest rates and the dollar trend. Generally, rate cuts are favorable for gold, but if economic performance exceeds expectations or the rate cut expectations evaporate, gold prices may also experience short-term corrections.

To sum up: the core of the 2026 market boils down to three points—how will rate cuts be implemented, whether AI investments can deliver results, and whether the US economy can transition smoothly. Once these three variables are clarified, the overall direction will be roughly clear.