This market signal is not very good.

Recently, I noticed a phenomenon: gold is rising, silver is rising, copper is rising, platinum and palladium are also rising, and even oil is trending upward. The problem is, it's rare for these assets to rise simultaneously.

Historically, when all major commodity prices move in the same direction during the same period, it usually indicates that market pressure is accumulating.

What's going on? During normal economic expansion periods, commodity prices should move differently. Industrial metals rise due to strong demand, energy prices follow economic growth, and precious metals fluctuate relatively steadily. But now it's different — all asset classes are moving in the same direction, indicating that capital is shifting massively from financial assets to hard assets.

Similar situations have occurred in history:
- The 2000 dot-com bubble
- The 2007 global financial crisis
- The 2019 repo market crisis

None of these avoided an economic recession.

This is not just pure inflation pressure; it’s a sign that the market is losing confidence in the existing system. The performance across asset classes reveals several signals: yields can no longer compensate for risk premiums, current debt levels are unsustainable, and real growth is far weaker than surface data suggests.

Particularly noteworthy is the synchronized rise in copper and gold — this is not a positive signal at all. This often happens when the market misprices demand, meaning consumption hasn't noticeably weakened yet, and macroeconomic data hasn't reflected this. By the time economists update their forecast models, the market has already reacted multiple times.

In the late stage of the economic cycle, the stock market remains optimistic, but physical assets are already telling the truth. Instead of listening to various interpretations, it’s better to observe what the commodity markets are truly indicating. Pressure always first penetrates the commodities market, then gradually appears in macroeconomic data.