A major uncertainty in the global financial markets in 2026 is gradually becoming clearer— the Federal Reserve is caught between fighting inflation and political pressure, with every policy adjustment potentially shaking the global capital markets.

On the surface, the Fed faces a contradictory choice: core inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, and tariffs continue to push up import costs, so traditional logic suggests tightening policies should continue. However, political cycle pressures have led to expectations of rate cuts, and the stock market has been rising on liquidity hopes. Ironically, this optimism is severely disconnected from economic fundamentals— the reality of a 0.3% GDP contraction is often ignored by the market.

Even more concerning is the decline in US dollar credibility. The dollar index has experienced its largest drop in 50 years, falling by 11%. The three major international credit rating agencies have collectively downgraded US debt ratings, and a trend of major central banks reducing US Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves has emerged. The dollar’s share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from a historic high to 57.7%, and the once-dominant safe-haven is losing its appeal.

Deeper underlying issues are even more worrying: the $37 trillion debt mountain looms overhead, and social wealth disparity has reached a critical point. The top 0.1% of the wealthy control 14% of all US wealth, and the dividends of the AI industry are being monopolized by capital elites. Meanwhile, the global de-dollarization wave is advancing, with more bilateral trade settled in local currencies.

In this game, every choice is fraught with traps: rate cuts could worsen inflation and accelerate the deterioration of dollar credibility, while maintaining high interest rates might burst the stock market bubble. Regardless of how the Fed decides, global assets will face re-pricing.

For the cryptocurrency market, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Expectations of liquidity easing generally benefit crypto assets, and against the backdrop of global de-dollarization, decentralized assets like Bitcoin are gradually becoming new options for diversification. But don’t forget, when the market unanimously bullish on a certain direction, it often means risks are accumulating.

So the question is: in this global wealth reshuffle, will cryptocurrencies be the winners? What position will crypto assets occupy in your 2026 investment portfolio?