The US Dollar Index fell to 97.95, the weakest performance since 2017, with a year-to-date decline of 9.7%. The driving forces behind this are clear—institutions are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice next year, coupled with concerns over US dollar credit sparked by Trump's tariff policies.

According to conventional logic, a weakening dollar should boost dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin. But reality has defied expectations. BTC still hovers around 88,000, repeatedly testing highs, and has not moved independently of the dollar's depreciation.

Where is the problem? It's a game of liquidity priority. By the end of the year, institutional funds are limited, and portfolio adjustments are carefully calculated. The result? US stocks (the S&P 500 has gained 18% this year) and precious metals have secured the most favorable positions, while cryptocurrencies can only wait in line.

How long can this mismatch last? It depends on how next year's story unfolds. If macroeconomic conditions change again, the balance of capital flows might reverse direction in a two-tiered manner.