Interest rates remain unchanged, and the liquidity feast in the crypto market has not yet begun and is already frozen.

After the Federal Reserve completed its rate cut in December, the overall market sentiment started to turn strange. While other risk assets cheered, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, long hailed as "digital gold," fell behind.

Recent probability data is enough to illustrate the issue— the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026 has soared to 84.5%, with only a 15.5% chance of a rate cut. In other words, the rate cut red envelope expected by the market for the New Year has already been dashed. The US dollar will continue to be strong, while risk assets like cryptocurrencies will remain under pressure.

Major Wall Street institutions are now arguing fiercely. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are optimistic about two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2026, while HSBC and Standard Chartered believe there will be no cuts throughout the year, and Macquarie even predicts further rate hikes. The wide divergence in expectations highlights how uncertain the economic outlook is.

The Federal Reserve itself also has differing opinions. New York Fed President Williams recently stated that the rate cut in December has put monetary policy in a "quite favorable position," and there is no rush to continue cutting. More painfully, three dissenting votes appeared at the December policy meeting—two wanted to keep rates steady, and one even proposed a 50 basis point cut. This is the first time since September 2019 that three votes opposed, revealing cracks within the Federal Reserve that are hard to conceal.

Although inflation has eased somewhat, it remains above the 2% target, and the labor market situation is difficult to assess. The Federal Reserve faces increasing difficulty in balancing these two factors.