Staring at the ZEC candlestick chart and analyzing for most of the day, the feeling is like watching friends shout about losing weight all day, then turning around to eat hotpot and drink milk tea—loud sounds but no real action. The price repeatedly fluctuates between the 443 and 450 levels, as if stuck in a certain range, unable to break through.

The volume performance is even more frustrating. The supposed active market is trading so lightly it’s pitiful, like the subway during rush hour suddenly losing all its passengers—cold and deserted. This is a classic case of external strength but internal weakness—charts look neat and tidy, but in reality, the market is lacking liquidity, and funds haven't caught up.

The divergence between volume and price is already quite obvious. In such situations, the so-called breakout is nine times out of ten a trap rather than an opportunity. More worth noting is the bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart that has been there for a while; the market has been warning us all along, but many choose to pretend not to see it, day after day hoping for a miracle.

From a technical perspective, the 443 level is like the last line of defense. Once it fails, the downside space could open up completely. And what about the 450 level? Multiple attempts to test it have failed, which already shows how strong the resistance at this line is.

A more realistic attitude is to treat ZEC as a range-bound asset. Consider lightening up and trying short positions around 448; or going long for a quick rebound near 443. Besides these relatively clear levels, over-optimistic expectations in the current market are probably not very reliable.

When can this deadlock be broken? It mainly depends on whether trading volume cooperates. Without increased volume, all fluctuations are baseless. Given the current sparse trading situation, it’s likely to continue brewing for a while before any real change occurs.