2025-12-26 13:23:27

Prediction market Polymarket's trading data exposes a phenomenon: highly private, almost unpredictable behavioral changes can be accurately reflected in odds on the order book within a very short period.

Take the example of "Will a top content creator change their social media profile picture before December 31st," the candlestick chart's movement is a textbook-level trading anomaly. Seemingly random personal actions can form clear price signals in the market minutes in advance—so is this just coincidence, or is there an information advantage behind it?

Such events occur frequently, reflecting a core issue in prediction markets: a significant gap exists in information access among participants. When it involves highly private information within a very small circle, this asymmetry is amplified to the extreme. The market's self-correcting mechanism fails here, leaving only a chain of evidence.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MEVHunter

· 12h ago

nah this is pure frontrunning theater. someone's def leaking insider moves before broadcast. the asymmetry here isn't a bug—it's the whole damn game.

Reply0

ProxyCollector

· 12h ago

It's the same old game of information asymmetry, with the information gap between players being ridiculously large. Can a private matter like a creator changing their avatar be reflected in the market in advance? Basically, it means someone knows the inside scoop. This is a common problem in prediction markets; no matter how perfect the mechanism, insider information can't be prevented.

View OriginalReply0

MidnightTrader

· 12h ago

Isn't this just insider trading with a different disguise... --- Damn, even private matters like profile pictures can be targeted, so what fairness is there in the prediction market? --- The information gap is so huge, retail investors might as well go all-in directly. --- It's the same old story, exploiting personal connections to the extreme, making it impossible for the market to self-correct. --- Wait, do you really believe this kind of trading is just a coincidence? I think it's purely someone with inside information. --- I've seen through Polymarket's nature long ago; it's just a playground for the wealthy. --- Personal actions can be reflected in the order book in advance, what does that mean? It means someone knew in advance. --- That's not right, there's a problem with this logic. How can private information be priced so quickly? --- The evidence chain is growing, someone should come out and explain this time. --- Even small things like profile pictures are being brought into prediction markets, truly incredible.

View OriginalReply0

ForkLibertarian

· 12h ago

Isn't this just a insider trading? LOL --- Prediction markets are just wealthy people's information arbitrage games. --- If small things like avatars can be predicted, then whose private life is still safe? --- Polymarket and similar platforms should have been regulated long ago; it's too unfair. --- It's all about information asymmetry and insider trading. Is this what Web3 is about? --- The key is how to prove whether it's an insider or just a coincidence. It's too difficult. --- I just want to know how much money can be made... --- This shows that retail investors are completely being harvested in such markets. --- Thinking back to those strange ETH price movements before, now they don't seem surprising at all. --- What's the use of leaving a chain of evidence? The SEC can't even investigate on-chain matters. --- It's really an insider paradise.

View OriginalReply0

just_here_for_vibes

· 12h ago

This guy definitely knew in advance, I bet five bucks. --- Damn, even changing profile pictures can be sniped? Does that mean my private activities are exposed too? --- The information gap is like this, insiders are harvesting profits. --- Polymarket has really become a paradise for information brokers, hilarious. --- Isn't this insider trading, just under a different disguise? --- Accurate reflection in a few minutes... I just ask who the market maker is. --- Predictive markets have become a cash machine for insiders, it's a bit outrageous.

View OriginalReply0

StakeOrRegret

· 12h ago

Damn, even profile pictures can be accurately predicted? Clearly, someone knows the inside scoop. Information asymmetry is money, brother. Polymarket's system has huge vulnerabilities. How could private information have price reactions just minutes in advance? It's the same old trick of insiders cutting the leeks; prediction markets are no different from casinos. How many people must be holding firsthand information and cheating inside? This is too outrageous. The mechanism design is flawed; it can't prevent this kind of asymmetric information manipulation. I'm truly convinced—if even profile pictures can be "predicted," what else can I believe?

View OriginalReply0