2025-12-26 13:21:08

Building on last week's perspective, let's continue analyzing the current market pattern. Currently, there is a 23 billion dollar options settlement to handle, which has set a new record for the nominal amount in the crypto market. Looking back at the patterns over the past three months, the market tends to give a clear directional judgment about a week after the settlement—September saw a sharp rise, October turned into a sharp decline, and November experienced a slight dip.

This year-end options settlement will have a significant impact on subsequent liquidity. From the timeline, it will be around January after the settlement, a period when news will be particularly dense. The two most critical factors are: the policy tone of the new Federal Reserve Chair and the new interest rate outlook for next year. These two variables will directly determine the future trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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DancingCandles

· 12-26 13:51

23 billion options are pouring in, this time it depends on whether the Federal Reserve Chair will buy into this move Something's off. Why is it always extreme market conditions after settlement, with no buffer in between? Next year's interest rate issue is the real bottleneck. Bitcoin is dancing along with the Federal Reserve A surge in September followed by a plunge in October. Such a clear pattern, how are people still caught? The January news bombardment has prepared us mentally. This liquidity shock is quite intense

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RatioHunter

· 12-26 13:40

23 billion in deliveries are coming. Will this wave lead to a surge or a crash? Let's gamble and see. Historical patterns are all there; it depends on what tricks the Federal Reserve wants to play. January will be bombarded with news. By then, Bitcoin will either be dead or alive—there's no middle ground. With such a big liquidity shock, small investors should probably shrink their positions first. Truly.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 12-26 13:39

23 billion settlement? This wave is probably going to trap retail investors again... Let's wait and see how they cut the leeks next, history always repeats itself anyway. The Fed guy says whatever he wants, and the crypto world’s fate is really in his hands. January is packed with news... stock up early, either skyrocket or crash through. After this settlement, can the decline also hit a new historical low? LOL

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BrokeBeans

· 12-26 13:35

23 billion in settlement, this time we'll finally see the outcome. Will January bring surprises or shocks?

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PortfolioAlert

· 12-26 13:31

2.3 billion settlement drama, it's that time again to watch institutions compete against each other, the tactics are still the same October plummet, November dip, the rhythm is incredible, waiting for January's two moves from the Federal Reserve to watch the show The impact of liquidity shocks depends on the Federal Reserve's mood; how high Bitcoin and Ethereum can go still depends on what they say Will this settlement be another false start, swinging back and forth, now betting on which direction feels uncertain

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BlockchainArchaeologist

· 12-26 13:27

This 23 billion settlement wave feels like it's going to wipe out a bunch of people. Maybe we should wait for the Fed guy to make a statement in January; guessing now is just guessing in vain. A surge in September followed by a plunge in October—what does this pattern indicate? The market maker is still playing the same game. With the Federal Reserve Chair changing, interest rates are the real core issue. Bitcoin will follow suit. After this wave of end-of-year settlements, it really depends on the Fed's stance. This nominal amount of 23 billion is a new historical high—sounds impressive. Let's wait and see; intense news is coming in January. Only then will we know if the bulls or bears win. Usually, the outcome is clear within a week after settlement? Then let's bet on it. Such a big liquidity shock, it's safer to hold spot assets. Once the Federal Reserve sets the tone, Ethereum might need to be re-priced.

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CrossChainBreather

· 12-26 13:21

230亿交割...又是那个套路，套住一批就是一批吧联储政策才是真杀手锏，别被期权动向唬住了 1月消息轰炸，到时候又是腥风血雨呢历史新高的交割量，这次会不会真的破局啊关键还是看美联储态度，其他都是浮云

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