Forecasting the Market Sprint to 2025: Behind the 40 Billion in Trading Volume, Are They Real Users or Just Hot Air?

【CryptoWorld】By 2025, the prediction market sector will be completely booming. The two major platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, are raising funds aggressively, securing valuations of several billion dollars from top institutions like Sequoia Capital and Intercontinental Exchange. It seems to be a glorious scene, but the question arises—out of nearly $40 billion in total trading volume on these platforms, how much is genuine demand, and how much is bubble speculation?

Upon examining the data, doubts immediately emerge. The revenue structure of these platforms has never been clearly explained, and some data indicators indeed seem inflated. Many industry insiders feel that these figures may be overly packaged.

Of course, the platform operators are not willing to accept this. They are partnering with well-known brands and expanding user channels through leading brokerages, attempting to push prediction markets into the mainstream. Their expansion efforts are indeed vigorous, but at the same time, regulatory scrutiny is sharpening—controversies over “market mention” manipulation keep surfacing, turning into a ticking time bomb for the industry.

As the 2026 election cycle approaches, can prediction markets truly prove themselves as serious financial tools rather than just gambling venues? The question remains unanswered. While the industry is booming, it is also undergoing a dual test of trust crisis and regulatory pressure.