Entering the Crypto Bull Market Cycle: Why Bitcoin Always Hits New Highs

Bitcoin has experienced multiple crypto bull run cycles since its inception, each creating remarkable profit stories—while also causing fierce corrections. In 2024, BTC has surged from around $40K at the beginning of the year to near $93K, with the latest data showing a current price of approximately $88.63K, still highly volatile. What forces are driving this?

The Cyclical Pattern of Bull Markets: The Halving Effect is Key

Bitcoin’s most stable growth engine is the halving cycle. Every four years, the halving event cuts mining rewards in half, directly limiting new coin supply. Historical data proves everything:

• After 2012 halving: BTC increased by 5200%
• After 2016 halving: increased by 315%
• After 2020 halving: increased by 230%
• After April 2024 halving: the current cycle remains hot

Supply tightening + rising market demand = inevitable price increase. This is not coincidence but a mathematical law.

From Retail Paradise to Institutional Arena

Bitcoin’s story has been told very differently across eras:

2013 Beginner Bull Market
That year, from $145 to $1200, a 730% increase. Media hype and the Cyprus bank crisis’ safe-haven demand brought this emerging asset into public attention for the first time. Although the Mt. Gox bankruptcy shadow later cast over the market, Bitcoin proved it could survive crises.

2017 National Frenzy
From $1000 to $20000, a 1900% surge. ICO boom, exchange proliferation, newcomers flooding in—everyone was talking about crypto. The result was predictable: an 84% crash in 2018. This bull market taught people that retail-led rallies are the most prone to reversal.

2020-2021 Institutional Frenzy
Bitcoin rose from $8000 to $64000, a 700% increase. This time was different—public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla started buying, institutional funds entered massively. Derivatives markets also became active. Investors were no longer just speculators but included pension funds and hedge fund managers. This gave the bull market a “robust” foundation.

2024: A New Window Opened by ETFs
The latest phase is most unique. In January, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, meaning traditional investors can finally buy BTC through official channels. Data shows ETF inflows exceeding $28B (some sources report over $4.5B), directly pushing BTC from the start of the year to $93K. The mechanism is different this time: no need to use exchanges—just a securities account.

The Current Market Temperature

According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s current price is $88.63K (as of December 26, 2025), rebounding over 30% from the historical low of $67.81K. But we must also see:

• ATH still at $126.08K, with room for growth
• 24-hour trading volume at $869.30M, moderate activity
• Circulating market cap at $1769.66B, with large institutional participation
• Addresses holding coins: 55M+, indicating relatively dispersed distribution

This price level is neither bottom nor top.

Reading the Signals for the Next Bull Run

To catch the next wave, learn to interpret these indicators:

On-Chain Data That Never Lies

• Increasing exchange outflows = retail accumulation
• Rising activity of large wallets = whales positioning
• Inflow of stablecoins = new funds preparing to enter

Technical Reference Points
RSI breaking above 70 usually indicates strong upward momentum but also the highest risk of reversal. The key is to watch the 50-day and 200-day moving averages—if BTC stays above these lines, the trend is indeed positive.

Macro Constraints

• Interest rate changes: rate hikes = funds flow into bonds; rate cuts = funds flood into risk assets
• USD strength: USD depreciation generally benefits BTC
• Policy direction: regulatory friendliness influences market confidence

How High Can Bitcoin Go? Three Future Possibilities

Imagination Space for Policy Support
Some US Congress members have proposed that the Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years as national reserves. If implemented, others will follow. This would elevate Bitcoin from private asset to “digital gold,” directly increasing demand.

Technological Upgrades Empowerment
Bitcoin may enable the OP_CAT upgrade, supporting more complex transactions and Layer 2 scaling. Once DeFi ecosystems are supported, Bitcoin is no longer just “digital gold” but can generate yields. This will attract another wave of capital.

Halving Cycle Continuation
The next halving is in 2028. Historical patterns show the strongest gains occur 12-18 months before halving. If this pattern repeats, 2026-2027 could be another crypto bull peak.

Risks That Cannot Be Ignored

Market Volatility’s Impact
High gains come with high volatility. At $88.63K, already quite high, any black swan event (regulatory shifts, geopolitical shocks) could cause a 15-20% drop in a week. Leverage traders may get liquidated, amplifying the decline.

FOMO Traps
Every time Bitcoin hits a new high, most newcomers rush in. They often buy at the top, only to face losses. This pattern repeated in 2017 and 2021.

Institutional Profit-Taking Risks
Institutions drive the rally but also sell off. Once they take profits, retail investors are easily shaken out.

Regulatory Uncertainty
Different countries have varying attitudes. Some may tighten restrictions, new tax policies may emerge, all impacting market sentiment.

Practical Advice for Holders

Regularly Review Your Portfolio
Don’t put all your funds into Bitcoin. A 50:50 BTC + other assets or 70:30 mainstream coins allocation reduces risk.

Set Reasonable Stop-Losses
If bought at $70K, set a stop-loss at $60K. Protecting capital is more important than chasing huge gains.

Monitor Institutional Movements
Watch ETF inflows of BlackRock, Grayscale, etc. Their actions often lead the market by 3-6 months.

Learn to Distinguish News from Trends
A single news event can move BTC by 5%, but won’t change the long-term trend. Stay calm during short-term volatility; hold firm when the outlook is positive.

Be Ready with Cash
In a bear market (drop over 50%), having cash allows you to buy the dip. Don’t put all your money in.

Will History Repeat?

Bitcoin has gone from nothing to mainstream. Every bull run makes some rich and others lose. The key difference: well-prepared investors profit, while gamblers lose.

The biggest difference in the 2024 rally compared to past ones is the more institutionalized driving force—ETFs, institutions, policy support. This could gradually turn Bitcoin into a long-term store of value similar to gold, rather than just a short-term speculative asset.

But the process will never be smooth. When the next crypto bull run arrives, no one can predict exactly. The best approach is to keep learning, manage risks, and seek opportunities amid volatility.

Bitcoin has proven its resilience. In the next decade, its role in the financial system will become clearer. Your task is to stay in the game without getting shaken out.