The cyclical nature of Bitcoin: how long do bullish periods last and what drives them

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has gone through several pronounced cycles of growth and decline. Each bull phase was unique, but they all shared one common feature – they eventually ended. The question of how long Bitcoin’s bull runs last remains a key concern for investors seeking to understand the cryptocurrency market mechanism and prepare for the next rally.

How long do Bitcoin growth periods usually last?

History shows that the duration of Bitcoin’s bullish phases varies depending on driving factors and market maturity levels.

2013 marked the first significant surge, when the price rose from ~$145 in May to ~$1,200 by December – a seven-month increase of 730%. However, the subsequent decline was steep and prolonged, with the price dropping about 75% in 2014.

2017 was characterized by a longer growth period, lasting nearly the entire year. The price soared from ~$1,000 in January to ~$20,000 in December – a 1,900% increase. This cycle lasted about 11 months of active ascent, followed by a major correction of over 84% during 2018.

2020-2021 saw the longest consolidation phase – approximately 15-16 months of steady growth. Bitcoin rose from ~$8,000 in January 2020 to a peak of ~$64,000 in April 2021, later reaching $69,000 in November 2021. This period was marked by expanding and strengthening institutional involvement.

2024-2025 already showed an increase from $40,000 in January to the current $88.63K as of December 2025 – a 120% rise over nearly a full year.

Data indicates that a typical Bitcoin bull cycle lasts from 9 to 16 months, though this is not a strict rule.

Key factors determining the length of bull periods

( Bitcoin Halving as a regular catalyst

The main structural factor influencing Bitcoin’s cycles is the halving event, occurring roughly every four years. This event cuts the block reward in half, reducing new Bitcoin supply.

After the 2012 halving, the price increased by 5,200%. Following the 2016 halving, the growth was 315%. After the 2020 halving, it was 230%. Each time, the end of the active accumulation phase coincided with the start of a significant price rally.

The April 2024 halving was a catalyst for the current growth cycle. Experts expect the next halving in 2028 to again set conditions for a potential bull run, although dynamics may differ due to changes in market structure.

) Institutional adoption and regulatory environment

Until 2020, bull periods were mainly driven by retail interest and speculation. With the launch of Bitcoin futures on CME in late 2020 and especially with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US ###January 2024###, the scenario changed dramatically.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more (billion in 2024, surpassing inflows into gold ETFs. This means that the duration and sustainability of bull periods now depend more on institutional penetration than retail enthusiasm.

Currently, major funds, including BlackRock )via IBIT ETF$28 , manage over 467,000 BTC. Collectively, all Bitcoin ETFs control assets equivalent to a significant portion of the liquid supply.

( Macroeconomic conditions and inflation expectations

Bull runs in 2020-2021 were fueled by massive monetary stimulus and low interest rates in response to the pandemic. Investors sought hedges against inflation, and Bitcoin was positioned as “digital gold.”

The current growth cycle began amid rising interest rates )in 2023-2024###, indicating a paradigm shift. Now, Bitcoin attracts investment based on technological progress and government interest, not just as an inflation hedge.

How to recognize phases of a Bitcoin bull cycle

( Early phase: accumulation and recovery

This phase begins after a bear market, when the price is depressed. At this stage, volumes are relatively low, but key players )whales### start accumulating positions. Duration: typically 2-3 months.

Indicators include increased wallet activity, influx of stablecoins onto exchanges, and a decrease in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges (indicating accumulation).

( Middle phase: growing interest and retail participation

As the price rises, retail investors start noticing the movement. Trading volumes spike, and FOMO )fear of missing out### creates upward momentum. This phase usually lasts 5-9 months and is characterized by volatility with an overall upward trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) often fluctuates between 50-70, indicating steady but not extreme demand. Price consistently breaks resistance levels.

( Late phase: speculative peak and exhaustion

When the price reaches extreme levels )usually new all-time highs###, and media hype peaks, the final phase begins. Volumes may remain high, but buying quality deteriorates – mainly FOMO-driven purchases by newcomers.

RSI rises above 70, often hitting 80+, signaling overbought conditions. Smart investors start taking profits, creating downward pressure.

The current cycle entered this phase in late November-December 2024, when Bitcoin hit $93,000 and above, then retreated to the current level of $88,63K.

What to expect in 2025 and beyond?

( Scenario of extending the current bull cycle

If the current cycle continues to expand )which would be an historic exception###, supporting factors could include:

• Further institutional penetration via new ETF products and derivatives
• Government adoption as a strategic reserve (the BITCOIN Act 2024 proposal in the US suggested accumulation of up to 1 million BTC over 5 years)
• Technological upgrades (potential activation of OP_CAT for Bitcoin scaling and DeFi applications)

Under a favorable scenario, this cycle could last until mid-2025.

( Most probable scenario: correction in 2025

History shows that after reaching new highs, a significant correction usually follows. Based on previous cycles, a decline of 30-50% can be expected after the current cycle’s peak.

If the current peak )~$93,000+### has already been reached, support levels are roughly around $45,000-$55,000, where a new accumulation phase may begin.

( Preparing for the next cycle after 2025

The next major bull impulse is most likely to coincide with the 2028 halving. This will give 2-3 years for market reassessment, infrastructure maturation, and preparation for the next rally.

Practical advice for investors

) Understanding the cycle reduces risk

Knowing that a typical bull run lasts 9-16 months, investors can plan better:

• Early stage: gradually build positions with a long-term horizon
• Middle stage: increase positions as the trend confirms, but start reducing risk
• Late stage: take profits in parts and move funds into safer assets

Use technical analysis

Monitoring key indicators helps identify the cycle phase:

• Trading volumes: increase during the middle stage, peak in late
• RSI: weak phase ###20-50### → middle (50-70) → late (70+)
• Moving averages: crossing of 50-day and 200-day moving averages often signals a new cycle start

Currently, (December 2025) at a price of $88,63K, a consolidation phase after the peak is observed, requiring caution with new entries.

( Diversification and risk management

Despite Bitcoin’s attractiveness, concentrating all funds in one asset during a bull cycle increases the risk of losses during a correction. It is recommended to:

• Keep part of funds in stablecoins for buying dips
• Diversify the portfolio across multiple cryptocurrencies and traditional assets
• Use stop-loss orders for automatic protection against major declines

Conclusion: Bitcoin cycles as a natural process

Bitcoin bull periods are not random events but predictable cycles driven by structural factors )halvings###, regulatory changes, and market evolution. Understanding how long Bitcoin’s bull runs last helps investors navigate volatility and make informed decisions.

The current cycle, initiated in 2024 with spot ETF approval and the April halving, has already shown a 120% increase and reached new all-time highs. Based on historical data, this cycle is nearing its end, suggesting a period of consolidation or correction in 2025.

Investors are advised to stay informed about key macroeconomic factors, monitor technical dynamics, and remember that every bull run eventually ends. Preparing for this transition is as important as participating in the upward movement.