Bitcoin: A Study on the Cyclical Surge from Breakthrough to New High

As the world’s largest digital asset, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced multiple explosive growth cycles since its inception in 2009. Recent data shows that BTC’s current price has stabilized at $88.68K, setting a new market high. What underlying patterns are at play? How does the crypto bull market in the cryptocurrency market actually form? This article will analyze the cyclical characteristics of Bitcoin’s surges and explore future possibilities.

Why Does Bitcoin Always Experience Cyclical Rises?

Bitcoin’s surges are not random; they are driven by several key factors:

The Magic of the Halving Event

The four-year Bitcoin halving mechanism acts as a catalyst. This event cuts the mining reward in half, directly reducing new coin supply. Historically, each halving has triggered astonishing price increases:

• 2012 halving: +5,200%
• 2016 halving: +315%
• 2020 halving: +230%
• April 2024 halving: propelled BTC from $40K to a new all-time high

Institutional Capital Inflows

The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US SEC in 2024 marked a turning point. This regulatory breakthrough attracted unprecedented institutional funds. Data shows that ETF inflows reached $2.8 billion within a year, fundamentally changing the market structure—from retail dominance to institutional-driven.

Policy-Level Shifts

The tenure of former US President Trump brought expectations of pro-crypto policies, with lawmakers proposing that the US Treasury reserve 1 million BTC. Such policy signals significantly boosted market sentiment. Meanwhile, countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have incorporated Bitcoin into their national reserves, reinforcing its status as “digital gold.”

2024-2025: A New Era of Crypto Bull Market

The current crypto bull market cycle exhibits unprecedented features.

Record-Breaking Price Performance

• Early in the year: $40,000
• November: $93,000
• Expected year-end: $100,000+
• Increase: +132%

The Power of Institutional Accumulation

Large firms and funds like MicroStrategy and BlackRock continue to buy. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds over 467,000 BTC, accounting for about 2% of circulating supply. This concentrated holding further tightens market supply.

On-Chain Data Confirms Buying Pressure

• Bitcoin reserves on exchanges hit new lows, indicating accumulation by holders
• Inflows of stablecoins into exchanges surge, signaling new capital entering
• Wallet activity remains high

Dissecting the Four Major Bull Cycles in History

First Cycle (2013): Retail Awakening

$145 → $1,200 (+730%)

This rally was driven by two forces: risk aversion triggered by the Cyprus banking crisis, and collective FOMO within online communities. However, the Mt. Gox exchange hack shattered early confidence, leading to a two-year bear market.

Lesson: In an infrastructure-weak era, a single black swan event can reverse the trend.

Second Cycle (2017): ICO Frenzy

$1,000 → $20,000 (+1,900%)

The ICO boom attracted many retail investors. But regulators quickly stepped in; China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges, causing BTC to crash 84% to $3,200.

Lesson: Policy risk is an invisible killer of crypto bull markets.

Third Cycle (2020-2021): Institutional Breakthrough

$8,000 → $64,000 (+700%)

Liquidity flooding due to COVID-19 led investors to lose faith in traditional assets. Major purchases by Tesla, MicroStrategy, and others sent a strong signal: Bitcoin can serve as a corporate asset. This time, the bull market was driven by institutions rather than retail investors.

Lesson: Institutional participation makes bull markets more resilient but also increases concentration risk.

Fourth Cycle (2024-2025): ETF Revolution

$40,000 → $93,000+ (+130%+)

Approval of spot ETFs removed the last barrier for institutional investment—no longer requiring direct custody of coins. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity launched products, with unprecedented capital inflows.

Difference from Past: This bull market is actively driven by regulatory forces—a milestone from confrontation to integration.

Key Indicators for Identifying a Bull Market

How can investors position themselves early for the next crypto bull market?

Technical Analysis

• RSI above 70 indicates strong buying momentum
• BTC breaking above the 200-day moving average often signals trend reversal
• Volume thermometer: trading volume gradually rising rather than spiking suddenly

On-Chain Data

• Changes in large wallet (whale) holdings
• Outflows from exchanges (holders choosing self-custody = bullish)
• Growth in active addresses and transaction volume

Macro Environment

• Central bank liquidity policies (rate cuts generally favor risk assets)
• Geopolitical risk aversion demand
• New regulatory developments

When Will the Next Bull Market Arrive?

Based on cycle patterns, investors should watch several key time points:

Around 2025

The next halving is expected in 2028, but the effects of the current halving cycle are still unfolding. Historically, the bull market tends to peak 6-12 months after halving.

Policy Breakthroughs

If the US passes a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, national-level demand could create a new baseline. Other countries are likely to follow suit.

Technological Upgrades

Upgrades to Bitcoin’s network (like scaling solutions) could expand use cases, extending beyond “store of value” to “medium of exchange.”

Practical Strategies to Handle Volatility

Avoid FOMO Buying

Historically, each bull market top has seen 30-50% corrections. Buying at FOMO peaks often results in being trapped.

Dollar-Cost Averaging

Whether bullish or bearish, buying at a single point in time carries high risk. Staggered entries can average out costs.

Set Stop-Losses

Bitcoin’s volatility remains high. Setting reasonable stop-loss points (typically 10-15% below purchase price) can protect capital.

Ensure Security

Hold BTC directly rather than on exchanges, and use hardware wallets for key holdings. Past lessons show exchange risks still exist.

Monitor Macro Factors

Rising interest rates usually suppress risk assets. Federal policies, inflation data, and geopolitical conflicts can reverse trends in the short term.

Will Bitcoin’s Long-Term Position Change?

From $1,200 in 2013 to $93,000+ in 2024, Bitcoin is no longer just a techie toy.

Immutable Attributes

• Fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, ensuring perpetual scarcity
• Continuous strengthening of network effects and security
• Increasing recognition as “digital gold”

New Challenges

• Environmental concerns: mining energy consumption remains unresolved
• Regulatory uncertainty: policies vary greatly across countries
• Competition from alternatives: other blockchains and Layer-2 solutions divert some funds

New Opportunities

• National demand: more governments may adopt Bitcoin reserves
• Financial inclusion: in developing countries with fiat devaluation, Bitcoin becomes a hedge
• Technological integration: DeFi, NFTs, and new applications may expand on Bitcoin

Summary: Insights for the Next Crypto Bull Market

The crypto bull market requires multiple conditions to resonate: halving effects, liquidity environment, policy guidance, and institutional participation. The current cycle of 2024-2025 has demonstrated this perfect resonance.

But history also makes it clear: there is no eternal bull market. Every peak is followed by a correction, and every bear market breeds new opportunities. For investors, the key is not to predict the top but to understand cycles, manage risks, and patiently wait.

Bitcoin’s journey from $1 to over $88,000 proves its resilience. In the next decade, participants in this crypto bull market will shape the future of digital finance. Are you ready?