Bitcoin Cycle Reincarnation: The Evolution from Early Explosive Growth to Institutional Deployment

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has witnessed multiple intense crypto cycles. From a 700% increase in 2013 to surpassing $88.68K in 2024 (latest data), the growth path of this “digital gold” has been filled with astonishing rises and brutal declines. For investors looking to seize the next wave of market opportunities, understanding the logic behind these cycles is crucial.

The DNA of a Bull Market: What Drives Bitcoin’s Super Cycle

Every Bitcoin bull run doesn’t happen out of thin air. The halving events are the core triggers—occurring approximately every four years, reducing miner rewards and causing supply scarcity. Historical data speaks volumes:

• After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged 5200%
• After the 2016 halving, it increased by 315%
• Following the 2020 halving, it rose 230%

But supply tightening alone isn’t enough. Institutional entry, policy shifts, technological upgrades—these factors collectively orchestrate the symphony of a bull market.

2013: Bitcoin Enters the Public Eye for the First Time

That year, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. The Cyprus banking crisis became a turning point—people started viewing Bitcoin as a safe haven asset to hedge financial risks.

But growth isn’t always smooth. The collapse of Mt. Gox (which handled 70% of global Bitcoin transactions at the time) shattered many investors’ dreams. In 2014, Bitcoin fell back to $300, a decline of about 75%. Key lesson: fragile infrastructure can cast a shadow over high growth.

2017: Retail Masses Celebrate

This year marked another milestone in crypto cycles. From $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% increase.

What drove this? ICO boom. New projects raised funds by issuing tokens, attracting a large number of retail investors. Meanwhile, the surge in exchanges lowered entry barriers, with trading volume jumping from an average of $200M daily at the start of the year to $15B. Media coverage created FOMO—price rises → attention increases → more people enter → prices continue climbing.

After the peak, a downturn was inevitable. By late 2018, Bitcoin crashed to $3,200, an 84% decline. Reason: China’s ban on ICOs and crypto exchanges, coupled with global regulatory uncertainty, dampened retail enthusiasm.

2020-2021: From Retail Game to Institutional Play

This was a turning point. Bitcoin rose from $8,000 (early 2020) to $64,000 (spring 2021), a 700% increase.

New narrative: Bitcoin is no longer just an investment asset but “digital gold”—a hedge against inflation. Major publicly listed companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy bought thousands of BTC. By the end of 2021, over 125,000 BTC were held by publicly traded firms.

Institutional tools also became critical—Bitcoin futures and ETFs outside the US opened doors for institutions. Federal low-interest policies and fiscal stimulus increased the demand for high-yield assets.

However, in July, Bitcoin dropped from $64,000 to $30,000, a 53% decline. The trigger? China intensified mining regulations, and ESG investors worried about environmental costs of mining.

2024-2025: New Heights with Spot ETFs

The most exciting story now. In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF—allowing traditional investors to buy Bitcoin through standard accounts without self-custody concerns.

Result? By November, ETF net inflows exceeded $4.5B, with total assets surpassing $28B. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds 467,000 BTC.

Meanwhile, the April 2024 fourth halving reduced Bitcoin’s new supply. The combination of limited supply + surging institutional demand drove Bitcoin to $93,000 in November, up 132% from the start of the year.

Latest update: BTC is currently at $88.68K, up 1.25% in 24 hours, with a historical high of $126.08K. The market is still digesting this growth, but momentum remains strong.

What Will the Next Crypto Cycle Look Like?

The future bull market will be driven by three major forces:

1. The Possibility of National Strategic Reserves
The proposed “2024 BITCOIN Act” by US lawmakers suggests the Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years. If passed, the US would become a national-level Bitcoin buyer. Similar trends are emerging in small countries—Bhutan (holding 13,000 BTC) and El Salvador have already incorporated Bitcoin into national assets. Imagine if major economies did the same…

2. Layer-2 Scaling Solutions and OP_CAT Upgrade
Bitcoin is about to undergo a code upgrade, with the potential revival of OP_CAT, previously removed for security reasons. This will enable Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second, opening the door to DeFi applications. In other words, Bitcoin will no longer be just “precious metal” but a functional network.

3. More Institutional Products Emerge
Spot ETFs are just the beginning. Options, leveraged products, insurance, derivatives—the toolbox of traditional finance is opening for Bitcoin. This means more capital channels but also more complex market dynamics.

Preparation Checklist Before the Bull Market

Want to navigate the next crypto cycle smoothly? These steps are essential:

Learn the fundamentals
Don’t follow blindly. Understand Bitcoin’s technical principles, historical cycles, and value proposition. Compare the different drivers of 2013, 2017, and 2021 to identify commonalities and new changes.

Develop a clear investment plan
Define your goals: Are you aiming for short-term arbitrage or long-term holding? How much drawdown can you tolerate? Based on this, craft specific buy-in, scaling-in, and stop-loss strategies. Don’t let FOMO dictate your decisions.

Choose secure storage solutions
If holding long-term, hardware wallets are a must. The risks of exchange failures and hacking are always present. Self-custody isn’t risk-free, but it’s better than putting all eggs in one basket.

Continuously monitor market signals
Pay attention to key indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): readings above 70 often indicate strong upward momentum
• On-chain data: decreasing exchange outflows and increasing wallet activity often signal a bull run
• Stablecoin inflows: large inflows of USDC/USDT into exchanges usually precede price rises
• Regulatory developments: favorable policies are the strongest market catalysts

Understand tax implications
Crypto trading may trigger tax obligations. Keep detailed records of each transaction’s date, price, and amount for tax reporting. Rules vary by country—consult professionals early to avoid future issues.

Engage with the community but maintain independent judgment
Online forums and podcasts offer perspectives, but don’t treat opinions as gospel. Most people buy at the peak of FOMO and sell at panic lows—these are signals for contrarian action.

No one can precisely predict the bull market, but history points the way

Bitcoin’s cycles have been proven: roughly a four-year full cycle, with halving as a key milestone, and institutional participation setting the ceiling.

From $1,200 in 2013 to over $88K today, this journey has seen countless moments of “either death or rebirth.” Every crash has been labeled a “bubble burst,” every rebound celebrated as “history repeating.”

The truth is: Bitcoin is evolving from an investment asset into a financial infrastructure. This process won’t be a straight line but full of twists and turns. But once you understand the logic of crypto cycles, and are well-prepared with a steady mindset, you can find opportunities amid chaos.

The timing of the next bull run is uncertain, but signals will appear in advance—halving completion, ETF inflows accelerating, on-chain indicators turning, regulatory winds improving. Those who are prepared will be the last to laugh.