Bitcoin Bull Run Cycles: From Scarcity of Supply to Institutional Adoption

Understanding Bitcoin Bull Phases

Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has gone through several phases of spectacular growth, each characterized by distinct mechanisms and different actors. These cycles of exponential returns are not random—they are driven by a combination of technical, economic, and behavioral factors that reinforce each other.

A Bitcoin bull run manifests as a sustained price increase accompanied by a drastic rise in trading volumes, social media buzz, and activation of dormant wallets. Unlike traditional markets, these rallies can generate gains of several hundred percent in just a few months, attracting investors with very diverse profiles.

Key indicators to identify an upward phase include surpassing the 50- and 200-day moving averages, an RSI (Relative Strength Index) reading above 70, visible accumulation on the chain (decrease in exchange reserves), and massive inflows of stablecoins signaling buying intent.

The Central Role of Halving in Bull Runs

Bitcoin’s halving event—which cuts miners’ rewards in half every four years—plays a structuring role in bull cycles. This supply constraint event has preceded or accompanied each major surge:

• After the 2012 halving: +5,200%
• After the 2016 halving: +315%
• After the 2020 halving: +230%

These events create a programmed scarcity that supports the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” As supply tightens and institutional demand increases, conditions for price appreciation are established.

The 2013 Phase: Media Emergence

Bitcoin’s first major rally occurred in 2013, with the price rising from $145 in May to a peak of $1,200 in December—an increase of 730%. This explosion was driven by new media coverage and the Cypriot banking crisis, which pushed some investors toward this decentralized asset.

However, the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014, a platform handling 70% of Bitcoin transactions, triggered a 75% drop from the peak and initiated a prolonged bear market. This incident highlighted the fragility of the market infrastructure at that time.

2017: Mainstream Breakthrough

The 2017 surge marked a qualitative turning point: Bitcoin went from $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December—an increase of 1,900%. This movement was fueled by a massive influx of retail investors, stimulated by the frenzy of initial coin offerings (ICOs) and intense media coverage.

Daily trading volume soared from less than $200 million to over $15 billion. Global regulators began to worry: China banned domestic crypto exchanges and ICOs, triggering massive sell-offs. The subsequent correction brought Bitcoin down to $3,200 in December 2018, an 84% decline from the peak.

2020-2021: Wall Street’s Entry

This cycle marked the arrival of institutional investors and a new narrative: Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. The price soared from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021 (+700 %).

MicroStrategy accumulated over 125,000 BTC, Tesla and Square announced large Bitcoin holdings, and institutional flows into Bitcoin exceeded $10 billion. The approval of Bitcoin futures at the end of 2020 opened the door to new regulated investment avenues.

Meanwhile, environmental concerns about Bitcoin mining emerged, tempering enthusiasm in some institutional segments and leading to intermediate corrections.

2024-25: The Era of ETFs and New Highs

The current cycle inaugurates a new phase of market maturation. In January 2024, the U.S. SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, opening a regulated and familiar investment channel for institutions.

Price Evolution:

• January 2024: around $40,000
• November 2024: over $93,000
• Annual increase: +132%
• Current data (December 2025): $88,690, down 1.33% over 24 hours but maintaining an annual gain

Institutional Dynamics: Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $28 billion in net inflows in 2024, surpassing gold ETFs. BlackRock, via its IBIT ETF, holds more than 467,000 BTC. Total holdings in Bitcoin across all ETFs exceed 1 billion BTC in spot holdings.

The April 2024 halving amplifies this bullish momentum by reducing new supply. Political optimism following potential pro-crypto developments adds an extra layer of positive sentiment.

Catalysts Structuring Bull Runs

Beyond halvings, several converging elements fuel bullish phases:

Government Adoption: Bhutan accumulates over 13,000 BTC via Druk Holding & Investments, El Salvador holds about 5,875. Legislative proposals in the U.S. consider that the U.S. Treasury could accumulate up to 1 million BTC over five years, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic national reserve.

Technological Innovations: The potential reactivation of OP_CAT could unlock Layer-2 capabilities allowing Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second. This could pave the way for DeFi applications on Bitcoin, positioning it as a competitor to Ethereum in certain segments.

Regulatory Infrastructure: The emergence of clear legal frameworks, regulated asset management products, and transparent reporting standards reduces friction for conservative investors.

Reading On-Chain Signals to Anticipate the Rise

Blockchain data provides early indicators of upcoming bullish phases:

• Accumulation vs. Distribution: Decreasing Bitcoin reserves on exchanges indicates investors are withdrawing assets, signaling bullish conviction
• Stablecoin Flows: Rising inflows of USDT or USDC onto exchanges signal buyer preparation
• Wallet Activity: Activation of dormant addresses after years suggests renewed interest
• Concentration Metrics: Accumulation by whales and institutions reshapes the holding structure

Inherent Risks and Reversals in Bull Runs

Each bullish phase carries its own pitfalls. Bitcoin’s volatility can lead to corrections of 20-30% over a few days. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions can divert capital into safer yield assets.

Speculative buying driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) tends to inflate bubbles, attracting inexperienced traders using leverage—which amplifies subsequent corrections. Future regulatory restrictions, especially on mining or exchange activities, could slow the trajectory.

ESG concerns about the carbon footprint of mining influence allocations of conscious asset managers. Long-term market saturation could reduce returns, diminishing Bitcoin’s appeal for traders seeking exponential gains.

Preparing for the Next Bull Cycle

To navigate effectively during the next Bitcoin bull run:

Fundamental Education: Master Bitcoin’s mechanisms, its historical cycles, and emerging technologies like Layer-2. Whitepapers and independent educational resources are essential.

Defined Strategy: Set your goals (gains short-term vs. long-term growth), risk tolerance, and entry/exit thresholds before investing. Diversification among Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, and traditional assets mitigates volatility.

Reliable Platform: Choose an exchange with a solid reputation for security, an intuitive interface, and robust measures (2FA, cold storage, regular audits).

Asset Security: Keep long-term holdings in offline hardware wallets. Enable all available protections on your platform account.

Information Vigilance: Follow reputable sources for regulatory updates, on-chain reports, and macroeconomic developments. Policy changes or new restrictions can shift sentiment rapidly.

Behavioral Discipline: Resist emotional decisions driven by fear or greed. Use stop-loss orders to limit exposures. Maintain accurate tax records of transactions.

Conclusion: Toward the Next Peak

Bitcoin’s history reveals remarkable resilience—each deep correction has been followed by a stronger new growth phase. Past bull runs (2013, 2017, 2021) each introduced new investor types and solidified Bitcoin’s status in the financial ecosystem.

The current cycle of 2024-25, with ETF approvals and halving expectations, marks a transition toward broader participation and a more mature infrastructure. While the exact timing of future peaks remains unpredictable, catalysts to watch—upcoming halvings, regulatory developments, macro trends—can inform investment decisions.

For those ready to navigate the inherent volatility of this asset class, upcoming Bitcoin bull phases will likely offer significant opportunities. Staying informed, disciplined, and prepared remains the best approach to capitalize on these cycles while preserving capital.