Bitcoin from $88K to the future: Unveiling the secrets of the crypto market bull cycle

Bitcoin, as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, exhibits a unique cyclical pattern—alternating between bull and bear markets. Since its inception in 2009, each bull run has brought exponential wealth opportunities but also profound risks. Currently, BTC is priced at $88.67K (real-time data), with room to rise further from its all-time high of $126.08K. Understanding the mechanics of these bull cycles is key to capturing the next market wave.

The Essence of Bull Markets: The Perfect Collision of Scarcity and Surging Demand

Bitcoin’s bull runs are not random; they are driven by predictable core factors. The most critical is the halving event—a supply shock occurring every four years that directly reduces the rate of new BTC issuance.

Historical data demonstrates the power of this pattern:

• Post-2012 halving, BTC surged by 5200%
• Post-2016 halving, it increased by 315%
• Post-2020 halving, it rose by 230%
• After the April 2024 halving, BTC soared from $40K at the start of the year to the current $88.67K, a 132% increase

Beyond supply scarcity, demand is also undergoing a qualitative shift. In January 2024, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US SEC marked a historic turning point—allowing traditional financial institutions to hold BTC compliantly. As of November this year, over $2.8 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund holding over 467,000 BTC. This influx is no longer retail FOMO; it signifies genuine asset allocation shifts.

From $145 to $20,000: The First Awakening in 2013

In 2013, Bitcoin was still a niche topic, but that year’s market was legendary. Starting at $145, the price skyrocketed to $1200 by December, a 730% increase. What happened that year?

First, the Cyprus banking crisis shattered confidence in traditional finance. Second, media coverage exploded, creating FOMO. However, early 2014 saw Mt.Gox, which handled 70% of global Bitcoin transactions, hacked, leading to a long-term bear market. The price fell from $1200 to $300, a 75% drop.

Lesson: Vulnerabilities in infrastructure often hide within the foundation of bull markets.

The Madness of 2017: ICO Boom and Retail Army Entry

If 2013 was Bitcoin’s first breakout, 2017 was its explosion. The year saw a 1900% increase—from $1,000 to $20,000—more insane than any stock market rally.

This time, the participant structure changed:

• The ICO craze attracted millions of novice investors
• Mainstream media coverage fueled FOMO
• Daily trading volume surged from $2 million to $15 billion

But rapid growth invited regulatory backlash. China banned ICOs and shut down domestic exchanges; the US SEC announced intervention. From January to December 2018, Bitcoin collapsed from $20,000 to $3,200, an 84% decline. The lesson from this bull run was even deeper—a lax regulatory environment is an invisible driver of bull markets.

2020-2021: Institutional Entry and the “Digital Gold” Narrative Triumph

The pandemic changed everything. Massive stimulus policies by central banks and governments fueled inflation expectations, leading Bitcoin to be redefined as a “hedge against inflation” and “digital gold.”

This cycle’s participants included listed companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square, which added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. By 2021, over 125,000 BTC were held by public companies. Starting at $8,000, Bitcoin reached $64,000 in April, a 700% increase.

However, this peak also brought risks: environmental concerns, regulatory pressures, and China’s mining ban. In July, BTC retreated from $64,000 to $30,000.

2024-2025: A New Paradigm with ETFs

The current bull run differs fundamentally—compliance and institutionalization.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs means pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, and other traditional institutions can now directly allocate to Bitcoin, just like gold or stocks. This is not speculation; it’s a long-term asset allocation decision.

Data points:

• ETF inflows: $2.8 billion (year-to-date)
• Institutional holdings: approximately 8-10% of circulating Bitcoin supply locked in ETFs
• Spot price: rising from $40K (beginning of the year) to $88.67K (current)

Unlike retail-driven phases in 2013 and 2017, today’s bull run is supported by three pillars:

1. Supply pressure—halving events recur every four years, next in 2028
2. Institutional demand—long-term allocation by traditional finance
3. Political friendliness—signals from the new US administration about Bitcoin strategic reserves

How to Identify the Start of a Bull Market? On-Chain Data Provides the Answer

Retail investors often realize a bull market is underway only halfway through. But on-chain data can signal early:

Key indicators:

• Exchange fund outflows: Continuous large BTC transfers from exchanges to private wallets suggest accumulation by big players, not selling
• Stablecoin inflows: Stablecoins entering exchanges indicate readiness to buy
• Whale activity: Large address accumulation often leads price by 3-6 months
• RSI indicator: When RSI breaks above 70 without overbought signals, the uptrend is still in early stages
• Moving averages: The 50-day crossing above the 200-day (golden cross) often signals trend reversal

In the 2024 bull run, these indicators all “turned green” between March and April—coinciding with accelerated ETF inflows and the completion of halving.

The Three Major Traps in a Bull Market and How to Avoid Them

Trap 1: Buying at the Top and Getting Trapped

In 2017, novice investors entered at $15,000–$20,000 and then experienced an 84% decline. This is classic FOMO-induced loss.

Avoidance: Set target prices and stagger entries. If you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value, don’t buy all at once. Instead, allocate one-third at $80K–$90K–$95K.

Trap 2: The Risk of Liquidation from High Leverage

Every bull run sees liquidation events. In November 2024 alone, over $5 billion in longs were liquidated. Leverage amplifies gains but also risks.

Avoidance: If you’re not a professional trader, never use more than 3x leverage. Even then, strict stop-loss discipline is essential.

Trap 3: Sudden Regulatory Black Swans

China’s mining ban in 2021 caused a 20% drop in days. Any news like “US considers taxing Bitcoin” in 2024 can trigger declines.

Avoidance: Monitor macro policies but avoid overreacting. Bitcoin’s long-term trend won’t change due to short-term policies. Set stop-losses at 10-15%, rather than panic selling.

When Will the Next Bull Market Arrive? The Signals Are Here

While precise prediction is impossible, key milestones are worth watching:

2024-2025

• Q1–Q2: Peak institutional ETF allocations (already underway)
• Q3–Q4: Halving effects fully unleashed (ongoing, demand continues)

2025–2026

• Bitcoin could reach $100K–$150K (market consensus)
• OP_CAT soft fork may activate, enhancing Bitcoin scripting capabilities
• More countries might include Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves

2028 and beyond

• Fifth halving event
• Historical patterns show 9–12 months after halving is the bull market peak
• The next foreseeable bull run cycle may occur in 2028–2029

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Market: Practical Checklist

Step 1: Educate Yourself Read a summary of the Bitcoin white paper (no need to read it all), understand why this asset is called “digital gold.” Learn about halving, difficulty adjustments, and basic concepts.

Step 2: Choose Legitimate Channels

• Use licensed exchanges (avoid unregulated platforms)
• Enable two-factor authentication (2FA)—a fundamental security measure
• Store large funds offline in hardware wallets

Step 3: Develop an Investment Plan

• Determine your maximum tolerable loss (usually no more than 10% of monthly income)
• Set realistic profit targets (don’t expect 100x; 30–50% is more feasible)
• Create an exit strategy (be prepared to take profits at targets)

Step 4: Monitor Key Events

• ETF inflow/outflow data
• On-chain whale activity
• Policy developments (positive/negative)
• Macroeconomic indicators (interest rates, inflation expectations)

Step 5: Psychological Preparation The biggest enemy in a bull market is your own greed. When BTC surges 50%, and friends share profit screenshots, stay calm—chasing highs is less important than disciplined patience.

Future Variables for Bitcoin

Government Reserves Hypothesis Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed: the Treasury could buy 1 million BTC over five years. If passed, this would significantly alter supply dynamics and could push prices up by 20–30%.

Potential for Technological Upgrades Once OP_CAT soft fork activates, Bitcoin could gain Layer-2 scaling, increasing transaction throughput from 7 per second to thousands. This would open the door for DeFi applications, making Bitcoin not just a store of value but also a settlement layer.

Global Liquidity Reallocation As traditional finance increasingly adopts crypto, Bitcoin may shift from a “high-risk asset” to an “alternative asset.” This could lead to large inflows from pension funds, insurance companies, and long-term capital.

Reflection on the Endgame of the Bull Cycle

Bitcoin’s price is not a random walk; it operates within specific supply-demand frameworks. Each bull run follows similar logic:

1. Supply shock (halving)
2. Institutional demand shifts (policy/market reforms)
3. Sentiment shifts from pessimism to optimism
4. Price surges
5. Final correction

Currently, we are in phases 3–4. With the current price at $88.67K, Bitcoin remains within a relatively reasonable valuation zone—43% below its all-time high of $126.08K but with a clear safety margin above support at $67.81K.

For investors, the advice is simple:

• Conservative: allocate 20–30% of your portfolio to Bitcoin as a risk asset
• Aggressive: wait for a 5–10% correction before re-entering
• Regardless, avoid lump-sum investments; dollar-cost averaging remains the eternal wisdom

What will the next bull market peak be? $150K? $200K? History cannot be precisely forecasted, but one fact is certain—it will come. The only question is: are you prepared?