Bitcoin's Bull Market Cycle: Evolution from 2013 to 2024-25

2024-25: New All-Time Highs and Institutional Capital Wins

Bitcoin is now reaching a new all-time high of $88.67K (as of the latest data), marking a milestone. Compared to $40,000 at the beginning of the year, this represents a 122% increase. This is not just a numerical rise—it’s a reflection of the maturing cryptocurrency market.

The uniqueness of the current cycle lies in institutionalization. The spot Bitcoin ETF approved in January 2024 changed everything. By November, these ETFs had attracted over $4.5 billion in inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 BTC. What do these numbers indicate? The traditional financial world is voting with real money to support Bitcoin.

The April halving further reinforced this trend. Historical patterns are clear: each halving triggers a new bull run. Post-2012 halving, gains were 5,200%; in 2016, 315%; in 2020, 230%. The 2024 halving continues this pattern.

Currently, companies like MicroStrategy are continuously increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin circulating on exchanges is steadily decreasing, creating supply scarcity. The surge in stablecoin inflows into exchanges indicates that institutions and retail investors are actively preparing to buy.

Looking at History to Predict the Future: The True Pattern of Bull Cycles

2013: The First Public Awakening

2013 was Bitcoin’s initial breakout. From $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. This was no coincidence—it marked the first gathering of early adopters and curious investors.

What triggered this bull market? The Cyprus banking crisis provided a real-world use case story for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, media began to notice this peculiar digital asset.

But the reality check in 2014 was brutal. The collapse of Mt. Gox exchange shattered investor confidence. Bitcoin fell from $1,200 to $300, a 75% drop. The lesson was clear: fragile infrastructure can kill any asset class.

2017: Retail Frenzy

2017 was the era of retail investors. Bitcoin surged from $1,000 to nearly $20,000, a 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume skyrocketed from less than $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end.

What fueled this bull run? The ICO craze. Thousands of new projects raised funds through token sales, each sparking investor interest in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Exchanges became more user-friendly (the rise of certain platforms made buying Bitcoin simple), and media coverage was everywhere.

But the cost was high. In 2018, Bitcoin dropped to $3,200, an 84% decline. Regulatory risks suddenly appeared. China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges. The SEC started expressing concerns. The price collapse was accompanied by a complete loss of market confidence.

2020-2021: Institutional Entry

2020-2021 marked a game-changing period. Bitcoin rose from $8,000 at the start of 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. This time, it wasn’t retail FOMO driving prices—it was genuine institutional capital.

MicroStrategy bought 125,000 BTC. Tesla invested $1.5 billion. Square also participated. These moves had a profound impact on the market—Bitcoin was no longer a fringe asset but something that could appear on corporate balance sheets.

The narrative of “digital gold” replaced the “get-rich-quick” story. In the environment of infinite liquidity and zero interest rates triggered by COVID-19, investors began to see Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

Recognizing Bull Market Signals

Technical indicators don’t lie

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70 usually indicates strong buying momentum. During the 2024-25 rally, Bitcoin’s RSI indeed reached this level. The golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (short-term crossing above long-term) has historically signaled a new upward trend. We saw this in 2024.

On-chain data tell the real story

Wallet activity surged. Stablecoin inflows increased. Bitcoin balances on exchanges decreased—meaning investors are accumulating rather than selling. These are classic signals of accumulation phases.

In 2024, the $4.5 billion inflow into Bitcoin ETFs alone proves demand. This isn’t a decision made by one person or a small group—it’s a decision by the entire institutional capital allocation sector.

Macroeconomic backdrop

The election of Donald Trump as US President brought pro-crypto policy expectations. Discussions about the US adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve became serious. Bhutan and El Salvador have already done so. If the US follows suit, global demand for Bitcoin will rise exponentially.

The “Big” Questions of a Bull Market

Volatility is a feature, not a bug

Bitcoin doesn’t climb steadily during rallies. Expect corrections of 30-50%. That’s just how the game works. High-leverage traders often get wiped out because they don’t understand this.

FOMO and bubbles

Every bull run attracts a flood of retail investors, often just before prices start to fall. The $20,000 peak in 2017, the $69,000 in 2021—these are classic examples of FOMO tops.

Now, some analysts predict Bitcoin will reach $100,000. Is this optimism justified? Maybe. But it also introduces risk.

Regulation always poses a threat

The US SEC may tighten regulations on Bitcoin trading. Governments worldwide could adopt stricter stances on crypto. Europe’s MiCA regulations have already increased trading complexity.

Energy and ESG concerns

Bitcoin mining’s carbon footprint remains a topic. While technology is improving (more renewable energy use), it may still deter some institutional investors from participating.

The Future of Bitcoin’s Technology

A code upgrade called OP_CAT could change Bitcoin’s capabilities. If activated, it would enable Bitcoin to handle more complex transactions, potentially implementing Layer-2 scaling solutions that process thousands of transactions per second.

What would this open up? DeFi on Bitcoin. Smart contracts. Competition with Ethereum. It would evolve Bitcoin from a simple store of value into a programmable financial platform.

But it also requires community consensus. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature means any upgrade needs broad agreement from miners, node operators, and users. Not everyone will agree.

Is National Adoption Coming Soon?

Senator Cynthia Lummis’s proposed “2024 Bitcoin Act” suggests the US Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years. If passed, this would be a game changer.

Bhutan’s government, through its investment arm Druk Holding, has accumulated 13,000 BTC. El Salvador continues to invest after adopting Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021.

If major economies treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the demand curve will shift upward. This would solidify Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold”—not just a speculative asset but a true national asset.

Preparing for the Next Cycle

1. Learn, not just invest

Understand how Bitcoin works. Study historical cycles. Not all rallies are the same—each has its own character.

2. Invest with a plan

Define your goals. Are you aiming for quick gains or long-term holding? What’s your risk tolerance? Stick to your plan and don’t be scared by price swings.

3. Security first

Use hardware wallets for long-term storage. Enable all security features on exchanges. Don’t store Bitcoin on insecure platforms. The lessons from Mt. Gox in 2014 still apply.

4. Diversify your portfolio

Bitcoin shouldn’t be all your assets. Mix with other cryptocurrencies and traditional assets. This reduces volatility risk.

5. Watch key events

Next halving (2028). New ETF products. Regulatory changes. These are events that could trigger the next upward wave.

6. Avoid emotional trading

Greed and fear are the main drivers in crypto markets. Set stop-losses. Don’t chase highs. Don’t panic sell.

7. Understand tax implications

Crypto gains have tax consequences. Track your trades. Consult a tax professional. It’s not exciting, but it’s important.

What the Future Holds

Historically, the next Bitcoin bull market will combine proven factors—halving cycles, institutional adoption, supply scarcity—with new catalysts.

Technological advances (like OP_CAT), national-level adoption, and ongoing ETF innovations could lay the groundwork for future rallies. But nothing is guaranteed. The crypto market remains unpredictable.

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in every cycle. From the $1,200 peak in 2013, to $20,000 in 2017, to $69,000 in 2021, and now—this asset has survived multiple death sentences and multiple renaissances.

For investors, the key is understanding cycles, being well-prepared, and participating with a wise, not greedy, mindset. The next bull run could be just around the corner. But history shows it could also be triggered by unforeseen events.

Stay vigilant, stay informed, and prepare for the unpredictable but potentially highly profitable future of this unique asset.