The financial markets in 2025 present an interesting contrasting picture. The S&P 500 index has gained over 16% cumulatively, reaching a new all-time high again, while Bitcoin has fallen 3% at the beginning of the year, with the decline expanding to nearly 18% in the second half. More notably, this opposite trend is the first since 2014, breaking the long-standing pattern of both moving in tandem.

Why is this happening? There are actually several reasons. Uncertainty in regulatory policies has been hanging over the market, and although the launch of Bitcoin ETF products has improved accessibility, it has also weakened market momentum. Changes in institutional investors' participation have also affected pricing. Meanwhile, subtle shifts in market leverage levels and liquidity environments are quietly influencing Bitcoin's performance.

In contrast, the traditional stock market has seen quarterly corporate earnings frequently exceeding expectations, coupled with the continued strong performance of AI concept stocks, providing solid support for the ongoing rise of U.S. stocks. The underlying logic of the two markets has already shown clear divergence.

This weakening of correlation is changing many people's asset allocation strategies. Investors holding stocks of Bitcoin-related companies or mining firms are beginning to feel the pressure. Institutional views on the future market are diverging—some are bullish, others cautious. How regulatory policies will be adjusted in the future, when liquidity will rebound, and whether market structures will be reshaped—all these variables will be key factors in determining Bitcoin's next move.