2025-12-26 12:23:46

$BTC $ETH $ZEC Recently unearthed a deep analysis regarding the financial risks in the coming years. I want to discuss the underlying logic with everyone.

In commercial real estate, the vacancy rates for office buildings are indeed rising, and valuations are declining. Next year, just the maturing loans amount to $1.2 trillion, which is a significant scale. Some regional banks have large loan exposures, and the subsequent pressure is definitely worth paying attention to.

The shadow banking system is also quite interesting—private credit funds with a scale of $1.5 trillion, heavily leveraged, with regulatory gaps. These funds may be more closely connected to traditional banks than we think; once the credit transmission chain encounters problems, the impact could be widespread. The SVB incident is actually just the tip of the iceberg.

Corporate debt pressures are also rising. In such a high-interest-rate environment, some highly leveraged companies are already experiencing difficulties. Coupled with valuation correction space for AI concepts, liquidity may face tests.

External variables like geopolitical situations and supply chain conditions are also fermenting. The yield curve inversion cycle has been long, and historically, such situations often indicate certain outcomes—everyone has a good idea of what that means.

Rather than keeping all funds in one place, it’s better to plan ahead. Check your deposit insurance coverage, diversify your holdings, and moderately allocate some inflation-hedging assets. Cryptocurrencies can occupy a reasonable proportion within this allocation framework.

What are your thoughts on the resilience of the traditional financial system in this round? Feel free to share your ideas.

BTC-0,02%

ETH0,09%

ZEC15,99%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

5 Likes

Reward
5
3
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ForkThisDAO

· 12-26 12:51

1.2 trillion dollar bomb set to explode next year, the office building sector is really panicking The 1.5 trillion dollars in shadow banking, with such high leverage, will eventually lead to trouble How long has the yield curve been inverted? What are we still waiting for? Instead of waiting for a collapse, it's better to diversify now; I am already stocking up Under high interest rates, whose debt is the most unmanageable? Everyone knows the answer SVB is just the beginning; there are more to come If the real estate chain breaks, banks won't survive either; the transmission chain is really terrifying Adding some crypto assets is the right move; it's definitely safer than betting everything on traditional finance

View OriginalReply0

WalletManager

· 12-26 12:47

The $12 trillion loan bubble is truly unsustainable. I've already moved the bulk of my funds out of banks. Holding onto the private key is the real key to security.

View OriginalReply0

SmartMoneyWallet

· 12-26 12:36

The $1.2 trillion loan maturity figure has long been eyed by someone. It all depends on who acts first to unload the goods. That $1.5 trillion in shadow banking, with such high leverage, is bound to have issues sooner or later. SVB was just the straw that broke the camel's back. There's more to come. The real problem isn't in dispersed holdings, but in the liquidity trap of traditional finance, which is already beginning to show signs. Diversification is dead. With yields inverted for so long, institutions have definitely been quietly adjusting their positions. Retail investors are always the last to know. Local banks have such large loan exposures that once a chain reaction is triggered, it’s no surprise if crypto assets can’t outperform. It all depends on who reacts faster. AI valuation correction space? Basically, it's about cutting the leeks. When will the funds at high levels withdraw? On-chain data makes it obvious. Rather than waiting for risks to explode, it's better to see through the capital flow now. Those big whales bottom-fishing already have a clear idea.

View OriginalReply0