Bitcoin Price Rise Cycle: From the Early Days to the Current Institutional Phase

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced notable cryptocurrency market cycles, each marking new developments in technology, regulatory adjustments, and investor base expansion. Understanding these trends not only helps traders forecast potential bullish phases but also provides historical context for evaluating future investment opportunities.

Current Bullish Phase: From $40K L to $88K

In 2024-2025, Bitcoin is witnessing a strong upward trend driven by three main factors. First, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF funds in January 2024 has opened a completely new investment channel for institutional investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without managing assets directly. Second, the fourth halving event in April 2024 has reduced the issuance of new Bitcoin, creating less supply pressure. Third, changes in monetary policy and pro-cryptocurrency statements from political figures have also contributed to boosting investor sentiment.

Starting at $40,000 in early 2024, Bitcoin has risen to $88,570 (current price), representing a 121% increase. Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $28 trillions to date(, surpassing the volume of gold ETF flows globally. Institutional investor interest continues to grow, with companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square adding thousands of BTC to their holdings. Currently, data shows approximately 19.97 million BTC in circulation on the market.

Key Indicators for Recognizing a Crypto Bull Run

To identify an upcoming bullish phase, investors should monitor a combination of three types of signals: technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic.

Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index )RSI### provide insights into price momentum. When RSI exceeds 70, it often signals strong buying. Additionally, when Bitcoin prices break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it typically confirms an upward trend. Currently, Bitcoin has surpassed all major technical resistance levels.

On-chain data reveals actual market activity. When Bitcoin holdings on exchanges decrease, it indicates accumulation by investors. Increased stablecoin inflows into exchanges also suggest readiness to buy. In 2024, these signals have shown a marked increase, with positive wallet addresses rising to 55.1 million.

Finally, global macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and central bank policies influence investor sentiment.

Halving Events: A Core Component of the Bull Cycle

Approximately every four years, Bitcoin halving occurs. Each halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, slowing Bitcoin’s inflation. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant gains following each halving:

• After 2012 halving: +5,200%
• After 2016 halving: +315%
• After 2020 halving: +230%
• After 2024 halving: currently trending at +121%

Scarcity drives demand, and this is an inevitable law in markets with limited supply.

Reviewing Historical Bull Phases

$145 2013: The Early Bull Run

In 2013, Bitcoin rose from ###around $100 in May to over $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. This period was driven by media attention on cryptocurrencies for the first time, as well as the Cyprus banking crisis, where some investors began viewing Bitcoin as a safe haven. However, the collapse of Mt. Gox exchange in 2014 significantly undermined market confidence, leading to a prolonged bear market.

( 2017: The Mainstream Development

2017 is considered a tipping point when Bitcoin surged from $1,000 to nearly $20,000, a 1,900% increase. This phase was characterized by the explosion of Initial Coin Offering )ICO$200 projects, daily trading volume rising from below $15 million to over ###billion, and widespread participation by retail investors. However, increased regulatory scrutiny from agencies like the SEC, along with restrictions in China, led to a sharp market correction in early 2018, dropping 84% from the peak.

( 2020-2021: The Institutional Era

The 2020-2021 period marked a major shift as Bitcoin transitioned from a speculative asset to part of large corporate portfolios. Bitcoin rose from $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. Institutional investors like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square began holding large amounts of BTC. The “digital gold” narrative gained popularity as investors sought inflation hedges amid loose monetary policies due to COVID-19. The approval of Bitcoin futures contracts and exchange-traded funds )ETFs### in various jurisdictions also played a significant role.

Factors Potentially Driving Future Bull Runs

###Positive Regulation and Government Acceptance

The BITCOIN 2024 bill proposed by several US lawmakers suggests that the US government could buy up to 1 million BTC over five years, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. If implemented, this policy would create unprecedented demand. Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC through its sovereign wealth fund, and El Salvador continues to commit to Bitcoin integration. Such government-level acceptance could encourage other nations to diversify reserves with cryptocurrencies.

###New Financial Products

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, managed mutual funds, and other financial instruments continue to open new doors for institutional investors. These tools provide exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct asset management.

(Technical Innovations

Network upgrades like OP_CAT could unlock new possibilities for Bitcoin, enabling thousands of transactions per second via Layer-2 solutions. This could expand Bitcoin’s use cases beyond store of value into decentralized finance.

Challenges to Consider

Bitcoin’s high volatility can lead to sudden price corrections. Macroeconomic factors such as recession or rising interest rates may divert capital from risk assets. Environmental concerns related to Bitcoin mining could also impact sentiment. Additionally, market saturation as Bitcoin’s market cap grows might reduce relative profits compared to emerging altcoins.

Preparing for the Next Bull Phases

Self-Education: Understand the technology behind Bitcoin, analyze historical bull runs, and identify common patterns. This knowledge will help you recognize early signals of a new crypto bull run.

Develop Clear Investment Strategies: Define your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Diversify your portfolio with other asset classes to mitigate risks.

Choose Reliable Trading Platforms: Look for exchanges with strong security measures, user-friendly interfaces, and support for multiple assets. Verify two-factor authentication )2FA and cold storage options.

Protect Your Investments: Use hardware wallets for long-term holdings and activate all available security features.

Stay Informed: Follow reputable news sources and regulatory developments. Understanding global catalysts will help you anticipate price movements.

Trade Responsibly: Avoid emotional decisions. Use stop-loss orders to protect your investments from significant declines.

Tax Preparation: Be aware of the tax implications of crypto transactions and keep detailed records.

Engage with the Community: Connect with crypto communities, attend webinars and conferences to stay updated on the latest developments.

Conclusion: What’s Next?

While it’s impossible to precisely predict the timing of a new bull run, Bitcoin’s history shows a clear trend linked to halving events, institutional adoption, and favorable regulation. Investors should monitor key indicators including ETF flows, on-chain activity, and regulatory developments to position themselves appropriately.

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience and adaptability through four major bull cycles. From its early days in 2013 to its current institutionalization, its trajectory shows continuous maturation. As we continue to see developments in regulation, technology, and government acceptance, potential bullish phases may build on this foundation.

To maximize opportunities in upcoming crypto bull runs, stay vigilant, keep informed, and be ready to adjust your strategy based on market developments. Understanding these historical cycles will help you navigate Bitcoin’s market volatility effectively and make informed investment decisions.