Bitcoin From Past to Present: Market Cycles and Price Breakthroughs

Bitcoin, the leading digital currency by market capitalization, has gone through many impressive growth phases since its inception. Each breakout has its own characteristics, shaped by market events, regulatory policies, and investor sentiment changes. To better understand Bitcoin bull runs and the cryptocurrency market cycle, let’s analyze the key stages in detail.

What Is a Bitcoin Bull Run and How to Recognize It?

A Bitcoin bull run is a period during which the price of the asset increases sharply and continuously, often lasting several months, driven by key factors such as halving events, widespread adoption, and regulatory environment changes.

To identify an upcoming rally, investors should monitor technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. When RSI exceeds 70 and the price breaks above these moving averages, it signals a strong upward trend. Additionally, on-chain data such as increased wallet activity, stablecoin inflows into exchanges, and declining Bitcoin reserves on platforms also provide important clues about market trends.

2013: Bitcoin’s First Major Price Surge

The Starting Phase of Growth

2013 marked Bitcoin’s first turning point, with prices rising from around $145 in May to surpass $1,200 in December—an increase of about 730%. This period demonstrated Bitcoin’s potential as a new store of value and alternative financial tool amid global financial crises.

Factors Driving the 2013 Price Surge

Growing media attention pulled Bitcoin out of the tech developer circles. The Cyprus banking crisis in 2013 also played a significant role, prompting some investors to turn to Bitcoin as a means of protecting assets amid financial instability.

Unexpected Challenges

In early 2014, Mt. Gox—handling over 70% of Bitcoin trading volume—faced severe security breaches and collapsed. This event caused a major loss of confidence, leading Bitcoin’s price to fall below $300, a drop of about 75% from its peak.

2017: Breaking Into the Public Spotlight

Rise of Retail Investors

2017 saw a record-breaking rally as Bitcoin’s price surged from around $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December—an increase of over 1,900%. This phase was characterized by a significant influx of individual investors and widespread media coverage.

Main Drivers of 2017

The explosive growth of Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) created a frenzy in the crypto community, with many new projects using tokens to raise capital. The popularity of new, user-friendly exchanges helped retail investors access Bitcoin more easily. Meanwhile, soaring prices attracted major media attention, creating a positive feedback loop between demand and publicity.

Deep Correction After the Peak

Daily trading volume skyrocketed from less than $200 million at the start of the year to over $15 billion by year-end. However, increased regulatory scrutiny from global authorities, especially China’s ban on ICOs, triggered large sell-offs. By December 2018, Bitcoin had fallen to around ~$3,200, losing about 84% from its high.

2020-2021: Institutional Adoption Era

The “Digital Gold” Narrative Begins

This period saw a major shift as Bitcoin rose from about $8,000 in January 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021—an increase of 700%. This rally was driven by a new narrative: Bitcoin is no longer a niche asset but a hedge against inflation amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Growing Institutional Investors

Publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square disclosed Bitcoin holdings. In 2021, MicroStrategy accumulated over 125,000 BTC, while institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin exceeded $10 trillion. Future approval of Bitcoin ETFs also opened new doors for institutional investors late in 2020.

New Concerns

Environmental concerns about Bitcoin mining gained prominence, prompting discussions on sustainable practices. Increased regulatory oversight also led to price adjustments and tempered some institutional optimism.

2024-2025: New Era of Bitcoin ETF Funds

Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

2024 marked a milestone as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETF funds in January. This event opened the door for traditional and large institutional investors. By November 2024, inflows into Bitcoin ETF funds exceeded $28 trillion—surpassing gold ETFs in the financial markets.

Recent Price Trends

Bitcoin rose from around $40,000 at the start of 2024 to over $93,000 in November, reaching new all-time highs. Latest data shows Bitcoin trading around $88.59K, with a 1.21% volatility in the past 24 hours. A 132% increase since the beginning of the year continues to attract investor interest.

Factors Supporting the 2024 Rally

The fourth halving event in April 2024 reduced Bitcoin issuance, creating positive supply-side pressure. Potential pro-cryptocurrency policies from political leaders also foster positive sentiment. Additionally, companies like MicroStrategy continue accumulating Bitcoin, reducing available supply on the market.

Halving Events and Their Significance

Bitcoin halving events—occurring every four years—have historically triggered major rallies by reducing inflation rates:

• 2012 Halving: Bitcoin increased by 5,200% after this event
• 2016 Halving: Increased by 315%
• 2020 Halving: Increased by 230%

The increasing scarcity of Bitcoin due to halving is a key factor driving price surges, as new supply diminishes while demand from large investors remains strong.

Predictions for Future Bull Runs

Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve

A rising trend is governments potentially recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Countries like Bhutan have accumulated over 13,000 BTC, and El Salvador continues to invest. If the U.S. or other nations follow suit, global demand for Bitcoin could increase significantly.

Technological Advancements in Bitcoin

Reintroduction of OP_CAT could unlock new possibilities for Bitcoin, including Layer-2 solutions and DeFi applications. This could enable Bitcoin to become a smart contract platform similar to Ethereum, expanding its use cases.

How to Prepare for the Next Bitcoin Bull Run

1. Educate Yourself About Bitcoin

Deepen your understanding of Bitcoin technology, its role, and the factors driving its price. Study historical rallies to identify patterns and warning signals.

2. Develop a Clear Investment Strategy

Define your financial goals, risk tolerance, and holding period. Diversify your portfolio to mitigate risks from market volatility.

3. Choose a Reliable Exchange

Look for exchanges with strong security measures, user-friendly interfaces, and support for multiple cryptocurrencies. Verify security protocols including two-factor authentication (2FA) and cold storage.

4. Protect Your Digital Assets

Use hardware wallets for long-term Bitcoin storage. Enable all available security features on your accounts, including withdrawal whitelist.

5. Stay Updated on Market News

Follow reputable news sources. Pay attention to regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, and news related to Bitcoin’s evolution.

6. Trade Responsibly

Avoid making decisions based on emotions or FOMO (. Use stop-loss orders to protect your investments from significant downturns.

) 7. Manage Tax Obligations

Understand tax laws related to cryptocurrency trading in your region. Keep detailed records of all transactions to simplify tax reporting.

8. Connect with the Community

Participate in online forums and educational events to share knowledge and network with other investors.

Conclusion: Anticipating the Next Bull Run

While it’s impossible to precisely predict the timing of the next Bitcoin bull run, Bitcoin’s history shows it will continue to be a major force in the digital financial world. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin, driven by halving events, institutional adoption, and technological development, makes it a highly promising asset.

Investors should pay close attention to key events such as new ETF approvals, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends to better anticipate future opportunities. By preparing thoroughly, staying informed, and trading responsibly, you can optimize your chances to capitalize on the next Bitcoin bull run while managing risks effectively.