How Bitcoin enters the new bull market cycle of 2024-25: from $40K to $88K surge

Bitcoin(BTC) has experienced a turning point in 2024-2025. From the beginning of the year, it surged from $40,000 all the way to $88,560. Although there was a slight pullback from the all-time high of $126,080 set mid-year, this rally still exceeded 120%, marking the official establishment of crypto bull run 2024. This is not just a numbers game; it reflects deep structural changes in the entire market.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval: A Breakthrough at the Institutional Level

In January 2024, the US SEC approved the spot Bitcoin ETF, a game-changing event. Products like BlackRock’s iBIT rapidly attracted massive capital, with over $4.5 billion flowing into various Bitcoin ETFs just in November.

Data shows that the total BTC holdings across all Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1 million coins, accounting for 5% of circulating supply. What does this mean? Institutional investors now have a clear compliant pathway to participate without directly holding the coins. This is a stark contrast to the 2013 and 2017 bull markets, which were mainly driven by retail investors.

Halving Cycles and Supply Shortages: The News Narrative

The economic principle of Bitcoin remains unchanged: a halving occurs every four years, reducing miners’ rewards by 50%. The fourth halving in April 2024 has reignited market imagination around scarcity.

History shows:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC surged by 5200%
• After the 2016 halving, BTC surged by 315%
• After the 2020 halving, BTC surged by 230%

This time is no different. As new coin issuance decreases and institutional demand continues to grow, price pressure becomes inevitable. Companies like MicroStrategy increased their BTC holdings significantly in 2024, further reducing the available circulating supply.

On-Chain Data Reveals Genuine Bullish Signals

Don’t just look at the price; on-chain data is the “barometer” of a bull market:

Wallet activity surges: Active addresses reached 55,106,626, a new all-time high. Large transfers are frequent, indicating ongoing institutional accumulation.

Stablecoin inflows to exchanges decline: This is a positive sign. When USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins flow into exchanges, it suggests selling pressure; the opposite indicates buying. Currently, stablecoin inflows are decreasing, implying stronger buying power.

Exchange-held BTC hits lows: Large amounts of BTC are moving out of exchanges into long-term wallets, indicating market participants are more patient and not rushing to cash out.

Evolution of Bull Markets: 2013, 2017, and 2024

Each bull market has its unique drivers:

2013’s First Frenzy: From $145 to $1,200 (+730%), driven by the Cyprus banking crisis and early media hype. Bitcoin was still niche then.

2017 Retail Mania: From $1,000 to $20,000 (+1,900%), fueled by the ICO craze attracting retail investors. But the 80% crash in 2018 caught many retail traders off guard.

2020-2021 Institutional Era: From $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%), with listed companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy entering, shifting Bitcoin’s narrative from “digital gold” to “inflation hedge.”

2024-2025 ETF Dividend: Spot ETFs lower the entry barrier for institutions and create new pools of capital. The question shifts from “Should I buy coins?” to “Should I allocate crypto assets?”—a consideration even for pension funds and insurance companies.

New Variables: Regulation and Politics

The Trump administration brought new positive signals. The BITCOIN Act of 2024 proposes that the US Treasury purchase 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. While not yet passed, this policy direction alone is a strong bullish signal.

In the past, policy risks were major threats to bull markets. Now, policy could act as an accelerator.

Real Risks: Don’t Get Blinded by the Bull

However, the $88K price level faces some real resistance:

Technical rebound volatility: During the pullback from $126K to $88K, RSI has dropped from overbought levels, indicating short-term correction pressures remain.

Retail FOMO: ETF adoption allows more retail participation, but also increases the risk of chasing highs. When profit-taking begins, it could trigger a chain reaction.

Macroeconomic uncertainties: Although the rate hike cycle has paused, global economic slowdown expectations persist. If a recession hits, BTC’s risk asset nature could weigh on prices.

Altcoin competition: Progress in Ethereum and other Layer 1 chains may divert some capital. If Bitcoin’s expansion solutions like OP_CAT don’t advance quickly, its utility could be relatively limited.

How to Bottom Fish and How to Top Out?

If you want to participate in this crypto bull run 2024:

1. Don’t chase highs
When prices are near all-time highs, the biggest mistake is to chase. Currently, $88K is already quite high. Newcomers should consider dollar-cost averaging around $75-80K instead of chasing above $90K.

2. Use ETFs instead of holding coins directly
For institutions or large investors, investing via spot ETFs is safer than holding coins themselves. If buying coins directly, use cold wallets for self-custody and avoid leaving funds on exchanges.

3. Watch the halving cycle
Post-halving rallies typically last 6-12 months, with corrections often occurring after 12-18 months. Given the April 2024 halving, there’s still room for upside, but don’t expect a full bull run through 2025.

4. Diversify risk
While Bitcoin is the main player, don’t go all-in. Allocating 5-10% of your portfolio to Bitcoin is prudent; balance the rest with other assets.

Next Key Time Points

• Mid-2025: ETF capital inflow window
• Mid-2025: Macro-economic data updates that could influence market expectations
• Before the next halving in 2026: Usually a final sprint phase

Summary

Bitcoin, from $0.01 in 2009 to $88,560 today, is no longer a fringe topic. The 2024-2025 crypto bull run is redefining who can participate. From early tech enthusiasts, to retail investors in 2017, to institutions in 2024—Bitcoin’s participant structure is continuously upgrading.

But upgrades don’t mean risk disappears. BTC at $88K is riskier than at $10K because the room for growth is limited. The real profit opportunities often lie not at the top of the bull market but during the most pessimistic market phases.

For those considering entry now: do your homework, manage risks, and consider dollar-cost averaging. This bull run may not be over yet, but the most lucrative phase might already be behind us.