Dencun is coming: How will Ethereum suddenly accelerate in Q1 2024?

Ethereum once again stands at a critical point of technological innovation. The Cancun-Deneb (Dencun) upgrade launched on March 13, 2024, is not just a routine update but a significant milestone on the path to Ethereum 2.0. The core of this upgrade—EIP-4844 and Proto-Danksharding—is quietly rewriting the cost structure of the entire ecosystem.

A Technological Revolution Behind a Number

The true power of Dencun lies in EIP-4844. This proposal was finalized at the end of 2023, specifically designed to reduce fees for Layer-2 networks. Currently, the average transaction fees on Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon are around $0.24, $0.47, and $0.78 respectively, while token swap fees can reach $0.67-$2.85. After the upgrade, these costs are expected to decrease by 10-100 times—this is not a minor optimization but a leap in scale.

Why Are Proto-Danksharding “blobs” So Powerful?

EIP-4844 introduces “blobs”—a brand-new data packaging mechanism. Rather than just a technical upgrade, it is a redesign of Ethereum’s data storage logic. Each data packet can hold 1MB of data per slot, providing Layer-2 transactions with a dedicated “fast lane.”

The synchronization upgrade between the data layer and consensus layer is also noteworthy. The Deneb update enhances the data availability of the Beacon Chain by leveraging the Beacon Block Root mechanism in EIP-4788, allowing Layer-2 to access required data directly without repeated queries.

How Do the Other Five EIPs Coordinate?

• EIP-1153: Temporary storage operation codes, reducing gas consumption during smart contract execution
• EIP-5656: Memory copy instruction MCOPY, optimizing data processing efficiency
• EIP-6493: Fine-tuning validator block selection rules to accelerate transaction finality
• EIP-6780: Limiting SELFDESTRUCT operations to enhance network security

While these five seem independent, they actually form a comprehensive performance optimization matrix.

How Is the Upgrade Timeline Executed?

From testing to deployment, the Ethereum community has spent a full three months:

• January 17: Goerli testnet launched
• January 30: Sepolia testnet
• February 7: Holesky testnet
• March 13: Mainnet deployment

This is not only a technical implementation but also a patient teaching for developers worldwide.

Who Are the Real Winners?

For Layer-2 users: Transaction costs drop sharply, and cross-chain liquidity costs become almost negligible. The economic models of mainstream Layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon are reactivated.

For application developers: The 1MB/slot blob capacity releases innovation space previously suppressed by gas costs. DAOs, NFT trading platforms, and DeFi aggregators can deploy complex logic at lower costs.

For the ETH staking ecosystem: Higher network throughput means increased validator earnings expectations. Liquid Staking protocols are expected to see a new wave of user growth.

How Big Can the Performance Leap in 2024 Be?

Theoretically, from 15 TPS (current) to 1000 TPS. This means:

• Ethereum can support 100-1000 times more transactions
• Single transaction gas fees could drop below $0.001
• New application scenarios (on-chain real-time data, high-frequency micro-payments) become possible

But Risks Must Also Be Monitored

• Short-term instability: In the initial phase of new mechanisms, gas fees may fluctuate, especially when Layer-2 switches to blobs at scale
• Compatibility traps: Some legacy DApps may need adaptation to new data structures, risking disruptions
• Adoption speed unknown: Even if costs decrease, whether developers will migrate quickly depends on economic incentives that take time to translate into action

The Three Future Steps: From Proto to Full Danksharding

Dencun is just the prelude. The full Danksharding—comprehensive network sharding—will take years to realize. But Proto-Danksharding has laid the groundwork for subsequent upgrades:

1. Petra phase (Electra + Prague): introduces Verkle Trees to further optimize state tree structures
2. Full Danksharding: dividing Ethereum into multiple independently processed shards, completely removing throughput limits
3. Ecological reshaping: existing Layer-2 architectures may evolve into Layer-3, forming a multi-layer scaling system

Key Signal for Traders

From a technical perspective, Dencun opens a new window for ETH and L2 tokens. Cost reduction → user growth → ecosystem activity → token value appreciation—this chain is forming. But short-term volatility remains a concern, as the first two weeks after upgrade are often high-risk periods.

Ethereum is transforming from a “noble network” into a “public utility.” This is not patchwork but a silent revolution.