The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the signals from the dot plot are more noteworthy—only one rate cut is planned for 2025, indicating that the easing cycle is nearing its end. Powell mentioned that the labor market is gradually cooling but inflation remains somewhat high, and this contradictory stance reflects the cautiousness of policymakers.

From an on-chain data perspective, the reduced expectation of rate cuts will weaken the support for risk assets. Bitcoin briefly surged past 94,000 but quickly retreated to 91,900, reflecting market adjustments to future liquidity expectations. Going forward, close monitoring is needed: whether large whale addresses are distributing at high levels, the pace of institutional fund inflows and outflows, and changes in leverage in futures positions—these will reveal the market’s true attitude even before policy news.

The preemptive rate cuts have reached their end; the key moving forward is employment data. If the labor market does not continue to deteriorate, liquidity conditions next year will tighten significantly, putting considerable pressure on high-leverage positions.