Good morning everyone. Recently, I've often heard people say that the cycle is dead, but I think this judgment is too hasty.

The cycle itself has not disappeared, it has just been extended. Looking back at history, past bear markets typically saw declines of over 80%, but now, due to the involvement of institutional funds and their supporting role, the maximum drawdown is roughly maintained at around 35%. That said, a "deep bear" could still suddenly arrive due to a black swan event, which is a risk we must acknowledge.

If you want to ask what the real driving force behind the mid-term trend is, my answer is liquidity. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy orientation, the inflow and outflow rhythm of ETF funds, and the strength of the US dollar index—these three variables carry far more weight than the support and resistance levels on the technical side. If you want to grasp the big trend, it's better to focus on these macro liquidity indicators rather than staring at the candlestick charts.

Finally, I want to emphasize an old saying: position is always more important than price. The long-term allocation should ideally not exceed 5%-10% of total assets, which allows for participation in gains without being caught off guard by temporary market fluctuations. If you plan to engage in short-term swing trading, leverage must be strictly controlled within 3 times; never think about going all in at once to gamble on the direction, as this is almost the fastest way to lose money.