#美联储政策分析 Powell's recent move is indeed a bit suspenseful. At the December monetary policy meeting, half of the officials opposed a rate cut, which is rare in recent years. The key is whether he can balance the divergence through a moderate 25bp cut and a modification of the forward guidance—satisfying the expectation for a rate cut while leaving room for future rate hikes.

However, from a data perspective, the reasons for opposition this time are interesting: the employment data itself is contradictory—growth exceeded expectations but the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.4%. The core issue is how to interpret this: is it weak labor demand (supporting rate cuts) or a decrease in immigration on the supply side (opposing rate cuts)? This directly affects the judgment on the economic outlook.

From an on-chain perspective, the market's pricing of the interest rate path will be more sensitive. If Powell ultimately pushes for rate cuts but the statement is hawkish, it may lead to repeated expectations of policy, and there will be noticeable fluctuations in fund flows in the short term. Close attention needs to be paid to the position adjustments of major institutions after the meeting.